In crisis, União Brasil tries to reinvent itself and invests in new directions

After a tumultuous succession in the presidency of the National Executive of União Brasil, with the right to reports of crimes against members of the party, accusations and insults, the party seeks new directions to guarantee its survival and strengthen itself on the national political scene. One of them could be the formation of a center-right federation with parties such as the Progressives and the Republicans.

The search for new paths has been designed with a focus on the 2024 municipal elections, Arthur Lira’s succession as president of the Chamber of Deputies, in 2025, and also the 2026 presidential election.

The party was born from the merger of the old Democrats – former PFL of traditional figures in national politics such as Antônio Carlos Magalhães and Marco Maciel – with the PSL, which sheltered Jair Bolsonaro when he was elected to the Presidency of the Republic. Currently, the party has 59 deputies and is part of the so-called “bloc”, formed in the Chamber of Deputies with Progressives, PSDB, PDT, Avante, Citizenship, Solidariedade and PRD, but is not experiencing its best moment.

To try to save itself from the crisis that hit the party a few weeks ago – with the election of Antônio Rueda as the new national president, and the allegations that Luciano Bivar allegedly had implications for the fire that hit Rueda and his sister’s house, on the coast Pernambuco -, parliamentarians and governors presented a representation against Bivar, who was removed from the presidency of União Brasil and from his functions in the party until the Ethics Council of the National Executive gives its opinion on the case, and adopts the appropriate measures, which can range from the maintenance of the dismissal until his expulsion.

Meanwhile, the former mayor of Salvador Antônio Carlos Magalhães Neto, ACM Neto, who assumed the vice-presidency of União Brasil, said that the party seeks to get closer to society, wants to expand the ranks in municipal elections, making the largest number possible from mayors and councilors in places where they can have their own candidacy, and supporting allies where they cannot “bank” as a candidate.

Furthermore, behind the scenes of politics, parliamentarians consider that the Union will bet all its chips on the nomination of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, to the Presidency of the Republic, in 2026, and even anticipate the formation of a highly prominent party federation, with the participation of Progressistas, by Arthur Lira; and the Republicans, by Marcos Pereira – currently president and vice-president of the Chamber of Deputies.

União Brasil may form a center-right federation with other parties

Members of União Brasil are betting on the federation, and believe that it will be created soon. Representative Rodrigo Valadares, from Sergipe, is one of those who believes that a greater alliance between center-right parties should be formed as soon as possible.

“I really support this federation, we would be unbeatable in the National Congress,” Valadares told People’s Gazette. In the deputy’s opinion, the federation would be clearly center-right, aligned with the desires of part of society that clearly demonstrates dissatisfaction with the left-wing coalition that governs the country, as shown by the Genial/Quaest* survey that pointed to the decline Lula’s popularity.

The president of the Republicans, Marcos Pereira, from São Paulo, who also appears as a supposed member of the future federation, denies that this could happen. “We’re not discussing it,” he said. Marcos Pereira is appointed as a candidate to succeed Arthur Lira as president of the Chamber, in a direct, albeit informal, dispute against the leader of União Brasil in the Chamber, Elmar Nascimento, considered Lira’s favorite.

Meanwhile, the president of Progressistas, senator Ciro Nogueira, from Piauí, admitted that the chance of the federation with União Brasil leaving is “99%”. “I think there is a very strong tendency towards party concentration. We will have the PT, the PL, and a concentration of center parties”, stated the senator.

According to the deadline established by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), parties have until April 6 to form a party federation, which will be valid for the 2024 elections – six months before the election. The first round is scheduled for October 6th.

Analysts assess that the combination of center-right forces could work

In the assessment of political scientist Cristiano Noronha, from Arko Advice, this construction between the parties is really possible, since the parties have a similar political alignment and ideological thinking, such as União Brasil, Progressistas and Republicans.

But, for him, everything will depend on factors such as who will be the federation’s candidate, that is, among the different names available in the subtitles, who will have the greatest support.

For Noronha, this construction should also be analyzed from the point of view of the succession for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies, in 2025, which places Elmar Nascimento (União) and Marcos Pereira (Republicans) on opposite sides, and which could cause some harm. be.

Another problem raised by the analyst concerns the political future of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), who is seen as a strong right-wing candidate to succeed Lula, but who many say would prefer to run for re-election to the state government. And yet, with an eye on the 2026 general elections, whether Caiado, from União Brasil, would also be accepted by all other members of the federation.

Political scientist Antônio Flávio Testa also said he believes that today there is a strong movement around a center-right candidacy for the presidential succession in 2026, despite the focus now being on this year’s municipal elections, with governor Ronaldo Caiado having good support between the parties.

Regarding the participation of the Republicans in the federation that is being negotiated between União Brasil and Progressistas, Testa stated that he does not believe that the party will participate in this joining of forces. “The Universal [do pastor Marcos Pereira, presidente do Republicanos] will play with the PT, unless the party empties itself. But the other center parties can unite to beat the left. These tend to crack a lot”, said Testa.

Still according to what the political scientist said to People’s Gazetteit is unlikely that in this scenario União Brasil will give up its political projects to support the PT in any way, in a scenario where the Republicans seem to be getting closer to Lula’s party.

Methodology

*The survey was carried out by the Genial and Quaest institutes and interviewed, in person, two thousand people, between February 25th and 27th, 2024. The interviews were carried out in 120 cities in all regions of the country. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points and the reliability level is 95%.