In 10 points: What Datafolha says about Tarcísio – 04/10/2023 – Politics

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) completed three months in office with his management being evaluated as excellent or good by 44% of the population of the state of São Paulo, fair by 39% and bad or terrible by 11%, according to the first Datafolha survey about the current government.

For 45%, Tarcísio —who was elected to the position with the support of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL)— fell short of expectations. This is the share of those who answered that he did less than they expected.

Still according to the survey, the capacity of the Chief Executive to fulfill what he promised in the campaign is put in check by 7 out of 10 residents of the state.

The institute interviewed 1,806 people aged 16 or over, in 65 municipalities in São Paulo. There were face-to-face interviews, last week, from Monday (3) to Wednesday (5). The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

See the main results in 10 points:

• Government rating: 44% think that Tarcísio’s mandate so far is great or good, 39% consider him regular and 11% see his performance as bad or terrible; 6% have no opinion. This is the first Datafolha poll on the evaluation of the current governor

• Previous governments: In comparison with three other governors who were the subject of the institute’s research after a similar period in office (three months), Tarcísio is behind Geraldo Alckmin (at the time in the PSDB), who in 2011 scored 48% excellent/good, and ahead by José Serra (PSDB), which registered 39% in 2007

• Nearest hub: The current governor has a 46% excellent/good score among men, 53% among people aged 45 or over, 56% among people with family income above ten minimum wages, 67% among businessmen and 86% among supporters of the PL, party of Bolsonaro

• Farthest core: The failure rate is higher than the average in segments that are more refractory to Tarcísio. The bad/very bad rate reaches 16% among young people aged 16 to 24, 17% among civil servants, 18% among those who prefer the PT and 14% among self-declared blacks.

• Vote crossing Tarcísio x Haddad: Among those who voted for the Republican candidate in 2022, 60% think his government is great/good, 31% see him as fair and 6% rate him as bad/terrible. Among those who preferred Fernando Haddad (PT), the percentages are, respectively: 33%, 45% and 17%

• Breakdown by religion: The results between Catholics and Evangelicals are similar. In the first group, the government is excellent/good for 50%, fair for 34% and bad/terrible for 10%. In the second segment, the rates are, respectively: 45%, 39% and 10%

• Capital x interior: Preferred by the electorate in the interior of the state, Tarcísio has more comfortable results in this territory than in the metropolitan region of the capital, where he lost to Haddad. The good/excellent indices are, respectively: 47% and 41%. The regular rating scores 36% and 42%. The bad/terrible opinion registers 11% and 12%

• Expectations met and frustrated: 45% of those interviewed think that Tarcísio has done less than they expected so far, 37% say that he has accomplished exactly what was expected in that period and 12% say that he has achieved more than was expected; 5% have no opinion, and other responses add up to 1%

• Pessimistic voters: Numbers indicate that part of Tarcísio’s electorate is dissatisfied or distrustful. Among those who claim to have voted for him in the second round, 35% think the governor has done less for the state than they expected. And a portion of 5% believes that no campaign promise will be fulfilled