Human losses lead costs associated with the climate crisis – 10/14/2023 – Environment

Most of the costs of extreme events attributable to the climate crisis are related to human losses. Climate spending from 2000 to 2019 was US$143 billion per year (around R$722 billion at current prices), of which 63%, equivalent to US$90 billion annually, are estimated human monetary costs — in addition to the obvious humanitarian cost itself: the loss of a life.

For comparison purposes, Brazilian GDP in 2022 was R$9.9 trillion in 2022.

The researchers focused on events that were directly associated with the climate crisis. To do this, they looked at climate attribution studies — an example of this type of research is the analysis that showed that climate change increased the chance of the recent heat wave in Brazil by 100 times.

For the study, published in September in the journal Nature Communications, a database of 185 extreme events from 2000 to 2019 was used. In these events, 60,951 deaths attributable to the climate crisis were recorded.

According to the research, thinking about damages associated with the climate crisis, the majority (more than 64%) are related to storms (for example, Hurricane Harvey). Then heat waves appear, responsible for 16% of damage; Floods and droughts (10%) and forest fires (2%) complete the list.

With the data in hand, scientists were able to calculate the costs related to climate change in the world.

2001 was the year with the lowest cost, with a loss of US$23.9 billion. The lead is from 2008, with US$620 billion.

Considering the period in question, the highest costs related to the climate crisis occurred, predominantly, in years with high mortality due to extreme events. They were: heat wave in Europe, in 2003; tropical cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008; and the heat wave in Russia and drought in Somalia in 2010.

Just thinking about the damage caused, not counting lives lost, the worst losses occurred in 2017 and 2005, and were basically related to hurricanes in the USA. In 2005, hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma caused an estimated $123 billion in damage. In 2017, hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria caused losses of US$139 billion, according to researchers.

Scientists, for this study, considered the unique “value of a statistical life” for deaths related to extreme events. This cost would be US$7.08 million per life lost, which, according to them, is equivalent to a value not far from the average considered outside the USA.

Such “value of a statistical life”, however, is data based, in general terms, on a relationship between reduced mortality risk and money, therefore, a number that changes according to several factors. One of these is the income pattern of the countries, that is, whether they are rich or poorer nations.

This data is often used by governments for resource allocation planning, such as highway safety improvements.

It is worth highlighting, however, that the values ​​determined by scientists do not consider indirect costs either in human lives — taking into account issues such as physical and mental health, well-being, and loss of productivity — or in general costs, such as losses in small businesses. , temporary unemployment and broken supply chains. The researchers point out the difficulty of measuring this type of indirect impact.

“The economic cost used in this research underestimates the true costs of climate change over the observed period,” state the authors.

According to scientists, this type of estimate, together with better economic data, can help improve assumptions about costs arising from the climate crisis and, “thus, form the basis for quantifying allocation from the Loss and Damage Fund”.

This fund was a product of COP27, the UN (United Nations) conference on climate change, which took place last year in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. Basically, it is a source of resources to repair climate losses and damages, as the name says, for “particularly vulnerable” countries.

Scientists conclude that, to reduce the costs of extreme events in the coming decades, there is a need to increase mitigation — that is, cut emissions — or increase climate adaptation measures.

“Preferably both,” the authors write. “Adaptation can make a considerable difference right now to the economic impact of extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Adaptation policies could include developing infrastructure such as flood protection or improving early warning signaling systems for events extreme climate conditions.”

POOR PEOPLE HAVE LESS CLIMATE STUDIES

The research shows that high-income countries had the highest costs, especially because of the storms affecting the US. But, say the authors, the distribution of expenses is also associated with data availability.

Basically, richer nations have more resources and, consequently, more capacity to have economic data on extreme events.

Furthermore, scientists point out that there are still gaps in attribution studies in important classes of extreme events and that this type of research is more commonly carried out in high-income countries.

For example, only 8% of climate attribution studies in the database used for the study published in Nature Communications are related to events that occurred on the African continent. Meanwhile, 23% are related to North America and 25% to Europe.

In any case, the researchers, with the available data, sought to see, based on values ​​related to GDP, the weight of extreme events attributable to the climate crisis. Taking this parameter into account, they saw that such costs are most felt in the poorest countries.

The study points out that, while for the richest nations the climate cost was around 0.2% of GDP per year, for the poorest nations, on average, it was around 1% of gross domestic product.

“This difference is almost entirely driven by high levels of loss of life in low-income countries, which may be a result of fewer early warning systems and safety procedures implemented in these areas,” the authors state.