How turbulence is more frequent with global warming – 06/14/2023 – Environment

Turbulence on flights has increased as climate change has warmed the planet, according to researchers.

Scientists at the University of Reading in the UK have studied so-called clear-air turbulence (when potential temperature rises with height), which is harder for pilots to avoid.

They found that severe turbulence increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020 on a typically busy North Atlantic route.

The researchers attribute the increase to changes in wind speed at high altitudes to warmer air resulting from carbon emissions.

“After a decade of research showing that climate change will increase clear air turbulence in the future, we now have evidence suggesting that the increase has already begun,” said Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, who co-authored the study.

“We must invest in improved turbulence prediction and detection systems to prevent choppy air from translating into more erratic flights for decades to come.”

Flight paths in the US and the North Atlantic saw the biggest increases, but Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic also saw significant increases in turbulence, according to the researchers.

The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Professor Williams said the increased turbulence is due to greater wind shear – or differences in wind speed – in the jet stream, a strong wind system that blows from west to east, about five to seven miles above the surface. from the earth. This is largely due to a temperature difference between the equator and the poles.

Although satellites cannot see turbulence, they can see the structure and shape of the jet stream, allowing it to be analyzed.

Radar can pick up turbulence from storms, but clear air turbulence is almost invisible and difficult to detect.

BELTS TIGHTENED

Turbulent flights are not only uncomfortable, but can also injure passengers. Severe turbulence is very rare, but clear air turbulence can come out of nowhere when passengers are not belted.

“Nobody should stop flying because they are afraid of turbulence, but it is sensible to keep your seatbelt fastened at all times unless you are moving, which is what pilots do,” said Professor Williams. “This is almost a guarantee that you will be safe even in the worst turbulence.”

There are also financial consequences.

The aviation industry loses between $150 million (R$728 million) and $500 million (R$2.5 billion) annually in the US alone due to the effects of turbulence, including wear and tear on aircraft, researchers said.

It also comes at an environmental cost, as pilots burn fuel by avoiding turbulence.

This text was originally published here.