How to explain the defeats of the government? – 05/07/2023 – Marcus Melo
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There are three rival interpretations of how Executive-Legislative relations work in the country. The first argues that governability is guaranteed by the distribution of benefits to the parliamentary base, which would ultimately be the product of the adoption of open-list proportional representation. It is argued that this individualizes the electoral dispute, undermines party discipline and weakens the parties and the ideological dimension of politics.
The second argues that governability is guaranteed by the sharing of government via coalitions and the distribution of ministries and positions. Given the asymmetry of powers established by the Constitution, the Executive is dominant, and the Legislature has strong incentives to ally with it. This dominance and the sharing of government ensure discipline and support for the approval of the agenda, without the need to buy individual support.
The third, more persuasive, integrates the previous ones into a dynamic model: the allocation of ministries and positions in state-owned companies represents a baseline; that of benefits, an adjustment mechanism. Parties that were not allocated ministries would benefit from budget amendments and agreements. Coalition management is critical.
The “coalition assets” —ministry and office— and the distribution of benefits to the base would be imperfect substitutes, not complements; the deficit in the distribution of the former would be offset by the allocation of the latter.
How to think about the defeats of the Lula government in this perspective? The disproportionality in setting up the ministry is, as we show here, decisive, but a warning: the context has changed. Lira controls the seams game. That’s why he reacted: “The exchange of ministries for support will not work. The amendments resolve this without the need for a ministry. As it is, the parliamentarian has the saucer in his hand, and a minister who does not receive votes is the one who defines the allocation of R$ 200 billion to municipalities”.
It is consistent with what Eduardo Cunha said: “Positions do not have the same relevance as amendments. They enter directly into the bases of deputies. They consolidate prestige and obtain electoral dividends”.
The leader of União Brasil (59 deputies, but only two ministries) is explicit: “The government needs to dialogue and fulfill its commitments. Mainly to make the Budget flow. The national leadership participates in the negotiation of positions. But 80% of Congress, which is the lower clergy want to know about budget execution. They want to know about taking the health post, paving”.
Coalition management has failed at the same time that the Legislature has undergone transformations: it is hypercentralized and strengthened.
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