How is the race for the presidency of the Senate after acts of vandalism

The dispute for the presidency of the Senate remains open between the president of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who will try to be re-elected, and the senator-elect Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). The analysis that the election continues without a favorite was made to the People’s Gazette by seven Senate leaders, among allies of the two candidates and even senators still undecided on who to vote for.

The majority analysis is that not even the acts of vandalism to the Planalto Palace, Congress and the Federal Supreme Court (STF), on January 8, in Brasília, define the dispute. Some senators allied with Pacheco and undecided consider that the probability of reappointment of the current president increases after the invasion of Praça dos Três Poderes.

The argument among some senators is that acts of vandalism strengthen the federal government and the candidate who has the sympathy of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and the support of parliamentarians from his political base, that is, Pacheco. The allies of the president of the Senate are confident in the possibility of triumph, but they keep their feet on the ground and avoid claiming victory before the election.

The 1st vice president of the Senate, Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB-PB), assesses that Pacheco can repeat or even expand the vote he obtained in the 2021 election, with 57 votes. He maintains, however, that the president of the Legislative House and his support base will act over the next 15 days to consolidate votes and convince undecided ones to ensure an eventual success in the election.

On a possible impact of acts of vandalism on Marinho’s candidacy and on behalf of Pacheco, Vital do Rêgo preaches respect for the elected senator. “It’s always good to make reservations so we don’t carelessly link. It’s not the fact that Senator Rogério is from the PL that can suggest that he has agreed with the acts. He is a democrat and I have no doubt that he, like any and all citizen who has common sense and, regardless of political and party positions, must have rejected the regrettable episodes of the 8th”, he says.

Vital do Rêgo believes that it is Pacheco’s profile and the work carried out by him that can be decisive for the result. “It is evident that there is the political element that is taken into account when choosing the positions of each party and each party grouping, but I cannot ignore that the voter and the senator and senator will consider the posture of who led the House, and Rodrigo led the house with firmness and power competence”, he says.

Marinho’s allies, in turn, also expect victory and reject the hypothesis that the invasion of Praça dos Três Poderes would harm the candidate. For them, success in the election would be by a score of three or four votes above the 41 needed to elect the President of the Senate.

On January 8, Marinho repudiated the acts of vandalism on his social networks. “Democracy does not tolerate depredation and barbarism. These actions end up justifying the unjustifiable, that is, they will cause the resurgence of exceptional measures that relativize the constitution and attack individual freedoms”, he commented. Senator Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ) reinforces the speech. “There is not a single senator who has not condemned the acts of violence,” he points out.

Likewise, Pacheco also gave statements of repudiation of vandalism in Brasília and demanded punishment for those involved. “I vehemently repudiate these anti-democratic acts, which must urgently be subject to the rigor of the law,” said Pacheco, who is also president of Congress and Senate.

What weighs in favor of Pacheco and Marinho for the presidency of the Senate

Both candidates have points in favor that keep their chances of election alive. In the case of Pacheco, in addition to being the current president of the Senate, having Lula’s sympathy and the support of senators and parties from the center and the left, he is seen by allies and undecided senators as “moderate”, “balanced” and someone with a “magistrate” profile.

Vital do Rêgo praises Pacheco and considers that he has played an efficient, effective and productive role at the head of the Senate in the last two years. “He had an extremely complimentary and commendable behavior ahead of the duties of the office, both politically, especially when he had to position the House and Parliament in defense of our institutions and delicate moments, as in 2021 [segundo ano da pandemia da Covid-19], principally. And he was always firm in defending democracy, its postulates and its principles. Taking this into account, Rodrigo’s choice is very safe and sensible”, he defends.

The vice-president of the Senate also praises Pacheco for his “vigilance” in matters such as confidence in the electoral process, with regard to the defense of electronic ballot boxes, and considers that, legislatively, he had the competence to give dynamics to the House in deliberating on matters important. “There are several subjects, even in a period when we had the pandemic, with the limitations of an eminently face-to-face work. But the presidency knew how to manage and we advanced the agendas faced, whether these were parliamentary or Executive initiative “, he highlights.

Marinho’s speech of independence and strengthening of the Senate pleases his allies and some undecided parliamentarians. Some congressmen, in fact, feel attracted by the talk of articulating a respectful approach with the Judiciary and not being submissive to the STF. “He has a speech that sounds good,” says a leader of one of the centrist parties.

Senator Carlos Portinho, who ended the last legislature as leader of the Bolsonaro government, says he had good feedback on Marinho’s speech in conversations with parliamentarians. “There are senators who understand that it is time to cool down and have a leadership capable of building a bridge of harmony between the Powers, of course, with our differences and positions”, he stresses.

Portinho considers that Pacheco did not have the ability to preserve the senate’s pride and independence in relation to the STF, for example, and that this benefits Marinho’s candidacy. “The feeling I’ve had in conversations with senators is that Pacheco has failed, this is very much alive in the Senate. The leadership of the Senate [Pacheco] did not have, despite all its proximity to the Judiciary, the capacity to build that bridge”, evaluates Portinho.

What weighs against Pacheco’s candidacy for Senate presidency

In addition to the good points, there are also analyzes on issues that would not benefit candidates. The main complaint against the president of the Senate is that he excessively empowered Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), former president of the House. “He delegated a lot of things, even as a matter of gratitude, which ended up being submissive to Davi, and that’s what many senators complain about”, says a leader from Pacheco’s base.

Alcolumbre, who presided over the Senate in the first two years of the last legislature, was the main coordinator of Pacheco’s campaign in 2021 and, according to two senators to the People’s Gazettethere is an agreement between both to mobilize the base for the election of the senator of União Brasil in the presidential elections in 2025.

Another point that bothers senators from Pacheco’s base is the way Alcolumbre put together the nominations of ministers for Lula’s ministerial team and the agreements signed for the occupation of committee chairs and the Board of Directors. The commitment signed between the two maintains Alcolumbre in the presidency of the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) and keeps the MDB in the first vice-presidency of the Senate, with the possibility of reappointing Senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo.

The criticisms of some senators from Pacheco’s base are that the agreements do not “oxygenate” the Senate. “Practically everything is already forwarded about who goes to the first vice, who goes to the first secretary, who goes to the CCJ commission and to other targeted commissions, and this is not going well. It is taking away the senator’s prerogative to be able to debate within its collegiate and putting it as if it were the odds and ends”, criticizes a senator. “Until today, what we observe is that the president is basically Davi. And this binomial Davi and Pacheco since the last legislature is not well seen”, he adds.

Senator Vital do Rêgo points out that the definition of the MDB by the first vice-presidency in the event of Pacheco’s victory meets the criterion of proportionality in the occupation of the Board of Directors and admits that his name is available. “I do not deny our candidacy, but it is not a personal decision, it is up to the group of 10 senators to make that choice”, he says.

Regarding the articulations involving Alcolumbre, Vital do Rêgo says that there is no imposition of wills and that the choice is free of the House collegiate for the definition of president and even of the thematic commissions. “THE [ex-]President Davi has had a worthy participation. If he is entrusted with some important missions, it is because who in fact confers them is not only Rodrigo, but the collegiate, who knows that he performs well and has performed very well as president [do Senado], and also in the commission. But I don’t know if he confirms the purpose of applying to the CCJ, but I see that, in that case, I think that his name and his permanence would be good “, he comments.

What are the “cons” to Marinho’s candidacy for Senate command

The observation made in Marinho’s case by some undecided senators and those around Pacheco is that the elected senator is seen as “very Bolsonarist”. For this group of parliamentarians, the invasions at Praça dos Três Poderes weaken their candidacy, mainly due to the speech preached by him of independence from the Senate.

“Some senators argue that it is not good for Brazil for Pacheco to be very aligned with the Supreme Court. Others argue, with some reason, that it could be bad for Brazil if Rogério Marinho opens a crisis with the STF”, says a leader. Based on this understanding, there is an analysis that the senator weakens after acts of vandalism in Brasília.

“It is clear that these acts did Rogério Marinho a lot of harm. I think that the invasion of Praça dos Três Poderes was very bad for him because the tendency among some is to associate the invasion with Bolsonaro and, intuitively, with him [Marinho]. People make that reasoning, including senators”, analyzes a Senate party leader.

“Although the pressure on social media is much greater on Rodrigo [Pacheco]I think this radicalization ended up greatly benefiting the federal government, which supports Rodrigo”, adds another leader.

One of the senators believes that Marinho will need to position himself “very clearly” as a candidate “who is right-wing but not radical.” “To have any chance, he has to say in all letters that he is not going to start a war against the Federal Supreme Court. He will have to defend independent powers, however, harmonic ones. And say that he will install the CPI to investigate the acts of vandalism and, with that, will displease some bolsonaristas”, analyzes the source.

Among undecided senators, it is even said that, at the last minute, Marinho could abdicate his candidacy to support Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), who would maintain the support of the bloc and get other votes for the center. Marinho has made clear his opposition to the acts of vandalism and the invasions that took place in Praça dos Três Poderes and has the support of the PL leadership, which rejects the possibility of resignation and maintains the candidacy.

“We are closed with Rogério Marinho for real”, said the national president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, in a video published to the press after a meeting at the party’s headquarters on Monday (16). “Our meeting here today was about counting. The election will be disputed, but we came to the conclusion that we have votes to win,” he said.

On the occasion, the party met to confirm Marinho’s candidacy and take stock of the articulations. Senator Carlos Portinho points out that, now, the PL and the support base go to the stage of composition of the support block for the party’s candidacy. On video, Costa Neto states that he will keep in touch with “other presidents” supporters to close the party block with PP and Republicans. He also said he would “keep in touch with other parties”.

Senator Luiz Carlos Heinze (PP-RS), vice-leader of the party, confirms the existence of a closed commitment to support Marinho. “I already have close support with him [Marinho] and, on Friday (13), we had a virtual meeting with the six PP senators on this subject. In principle, they are all favorites, the six votes are with him “, he said. The meeting was coordinated by the national president and leader of the party in the Senate, Ciro Nogueira (PI), former chief minister of Bolsonaro’s Civil House.