Homicide drop consolidates in 2022 and generates trial by fire for Lula

The consolidation of a significant drop in homicides in Brazil that began in 2018 and continued in the following years, with small variations, puts pressure on Lula’s mandate to maintain violent deaths at lower levels in the coming years.

This Thursday (20), the main indicators on violence in Brazil were released in the 17th Brazilian Public Security Yearbook, an annual survey carried out by the Brazilian Public Security Forum (FBSP). Among the various data, the study pointed out that in 2022 there was a 2.4% reduction in intentional violent deaths compared to the previous year.

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The total number of homicides recorded in 2022 (47.5 thousand) is the lowest in the FBSP historical series that started in 2011, when there were 47.2 thousand intentional violent deaths. Since then, the peak of violence in the country occurred in 2017, when 64,000 homicides were recorded. In the last five years, the reduction of violent deaths in the country reaches 25.8%.

As of 2024, when the violence indicators for the first year of the Lula administration will be released, it will be possible to measure whether the new public security policies – focused less on combating organized crime and more on combating violence against women, on disarming the civilian population and on policies to promote human rights – will contribute to maintaining the downward trend in homicides.

“Everything will depend on the current government knowing how to separate criminal and police sciences from ideology”, evaluates public security specialist Olavo Mendonça. “If the Lula government, even though it is on the left, opts for a more pragmatic approach, placing people without ideological bias and focused on the technical-scientific study of crime, and by maintaining the good public policies left in the previous government, it is possible, yes, that these numbers will continue to fall”, he continues.

Real effect of PT policies can only be seen in 2025, says expert

In the analysis of colonel from the reserve of the Military Police of Paraíba (PMPB), Onivan Elias de Oliveira, a more accurate perception of the practical effect of the policies implemented by the Lula government should be possible only in 2025, the year in which the criminal indicators referring to 2024 will be released.

“In the first half of this year, the data already show a continuation of the downward trend. There is a strong perspective that the year ends with numbers even lower than those of 2022. I understand that the numbers for 2024 will be the first litmus test on the policies implemented by the Lula government”, says Onivan.

However, the PMPB colonel considers that so far the Lula administration has presented little in relation to a strategic platform that shows what the government’s national public security policy is. “Other than the weapons repeal, we haven’t seen anything more concrete,” he says.

Regarding the widely restrictive policy of legal access to weapons by the civilian population, adopted by the new government, Olavo Mendonça claims that there is an unknown as to how the measure will be reflected in criminal rates. “We have this perception that more weapons force a decrease in crime due to the feeling of risk to the criminal. Perhaps this policy of curbing civil armament could generate negative impacts, but there are still no reliable studies on this, ”he explains.

Actions by the Bolsonaro government and states have led to a robust drop in recent years, say experts

For the sources heard by the People’s Gazetteit is not possible to determine factors responsible for the reduction of homicides in Brazil in isolation, but there is a consensus that in recent years there has been greater emphasis on combating crime and greater investment in public policies, especially linked to the fight against organized crime.

One such example is the National Border and Border Security Program (Vigia), launched in the first months of the Bolsonaro government with a focus on combating the entry of drugs and weapons into all border and border regions of the country. Government data from 2021 showed that in the two years the program was in force, 870 tons of drugs, 2,000 weapons, 4,600 vehicles and 440 vessels were seized. The estimated damage to criminal organizations was almost R$ 3 billion in the period.

Another policy identified as having a high impact on reducing violence was Sergio Moro’s determination in February 2019, when he held the post of Minister of Justice in the Jair Bolsonaro government, to isolate faction leaders in federal prisons.

In all, more than 320 leaders of organized crime were transferred to maximum security prisons, where routines are stricter and there is no possibility of communicating with the outside world. The measure dealt a severe blow to organized crime and caused widespread confusion in the faction’s commands, which saw their criminal activities stagnate. It is worth noting that most crimes such as robberies and homicides in Brazil are linked to drug trafficking.

“In Paraíba, with the transfer of local criminal leaders to federal prisons, we immediately felt the impact on crime as a whole, especially in terms of robberies and deaths,” says Onivan. “The public policies adopted in that period directly influenced the reduction of intentional violent deaths”, he points out.

On the other hand, effective policies implemented by the states – responsible, for example, for managing the military and civil police – also contributed to the improvement in violence indicators. According to the new edition of the Yearbook, last year alone there was an increase of 11.6% in state investment in public safety.

The Unified Public Security System (Susp), sanctioned in 2018 by then President Michel Temer (MDB), also contributed to the increase in transfers from the Union to states and city halls. But, as the PMPB colonel emphasizes, the increase in investment alone does not translate into an improvement in violence rates.

“States like Amapá and Bahia, although they have increased their investments, still had an increase in intentional violent deaths. So the quantitative improvement in investment in public security did not reflect in the decrease of indicators, while states like Santa Catarina and Paraíba also had an increase in investments and achieved continuous reductions throughout this period”, he explains.

Homicide rate is still critical; impunity, organized crime and cultural aspects complicate

Despite the drop in homicides in recent years, Brazil is still in a situation of extreme violence. According to 2020 data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the Brazilian rate of violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants is only lower than in countries like Colombia, Mexico, Jamaica and Belize. With 2.7% of the world’s population, Brazil accounts for 20.4% of homicides among the 102 countries surveyed by UNODC.

For Olavo Mendonça, the flaws in the criminal justice system, which lead the country to a chronic feeling of impunity, are the main factor that impacts on the high crime rates. “Alongside the absolutely generalized impunity that prevails in Brazil is the strength of organized crime, supported by drug trafficking, which spreads into the State managing to pervert spheres of the bodies that should be fighting crime”, says the expert.

The PMPB colonel mentions the cultural aspect as a determining factor for the perpetuation of high levels of violence. “In my view, the cultural factor shows that we are a people of ‘hot-blooded’ culture. A part of our population seeks to resolve disagreements by practicing violence, often leading to lethal outcomes. I would say that culturally and historically we are a peaceful people, ”he says.