Half of analysts think the fiscal target will be changed by March, says survey – 12/25/2023 – Panel

Most analysts think that the zero deficit fiscal target approved by Congress in the 2024 Budget will be changed by the end of the second quarter of next year, while 7 in 10 calculate that the new target will be a deficit of 0.5% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), indicates research.

The Barometer of Power survey, from the economics website InfoMoney, was carried out between December 19th and 22nd with 12 respondents — ten representatives from political risk analysis houses and two independent analysts.

Half of those consulted said that the probability of the zero deficit fiscal target being changed during execution is high, while another 17% stated that the chance of this happening is very high.

Given this scenario, 50% estimate that the adjustment will be made through a PLN (Congressional bill) in the first quarter of the year, when the government releases the Primary Revenue and Expense Assessment Report. Another 33% see the change in the second quarter of 2024.

Regarding the size of the change, 73% see the new target as a deficit of 0.5% of GDP, and 18% see an even more elastic change, to a deficit of 0.75% of GDP.

The survey also questioned analysts about the power of influence of President Lula (PT) in the 2024 municipal elections. For 45%, the PT member will influence positively, the same percentage of those who believe that the impact will be moderate.

In relation to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 55% see a moderate influence and 18% consider a positive impact. Furthermore, 64% say that the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), will take Bolsonaro’s place after his ineligibility.

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