Government attempts to hide information fall on the same day and undermine Lula’s management

The leaks of images recorded on January 8 by the security cameras of the Planalto Palace and of information about the Federal Police operation that points to an alleged connection between the lawyers of Adélio Bispo – the author of the stab wound to Jair Bolsonaro (PL) during the campaign election of 2018 – to the criminal faction Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) generated great repercussions in the national political scenario. The impacts were immediate in the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

One of them was the fall of Minister Gonçalves Dias, former head of the Institutional Security Office (GSI), seen in the images offering water to the demonstrators and indicating doors and exit stairs from inside the Planalto Palace.

But, with the leak of the images, the pressure by the Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) of the acts of the 8th of January was also redoubled. The opposition organized the obstruction of work in the National Congress and warned that it will only resume conduction with the installation of the CPMI.

The events unfolded after a day of apparent victory for the government with the postponement of the joint session of Congress and the delivery of the project for the new fiscal framework.

In this context, the government was forced to give in to the opening of the CPMI, which should take place during the next session of Congress scheduled for April 26th. With the crisis in the government, the choruses for the impeachment of Lula increased, uttered by parliamentarians in the gallery and on social networks. Experts, however, point out that the episodes, although serious, are not enough for the PT candidate to leave the presidency. (Read more below.)

Composition of the CPMI can be decisive

The directions of the CPMI, however, are not yet possible to predict. The assessment is made by political scientist Cristiano Noronha, vice-president of consultancy Arko Advice, who points to the commission’s composition as decisive for the possible developments.

“Having a more government-oriented formation, the government ends up having a majority and preserving itself from possible threats or becoming the focus of investigations. With a more independent CPMI, it will focus on requesting documents and investigating why certain authorities were removed and others were not. If it is mostly opposition, it will target the current government and harm the entire legislative agenda of the government”, said Noronha.

Federal deputy Pompeo de Mattos (PDT-RS), who is part of the government’s base, assesses that the opening of the CPMI will not increase the pressure on the Lula government, and, in his view, will bring relief. The parliamentarian also states that the non-installation of the CPMI, in view of the sufficient number of signatures, “generated even an embarrassment”.

Matter of People’s Gazette showed the change in the government’s attitude after the images were released. The Planalto’s immediate reaction was, in addition to removing Gonçalves Dias from office, to place its leaders and articulators in Congress to declare support for the CPMI, in a political effort not to lose control of the narrative about the depredation in Praça dos Três Poderes, and to try to appear that you have always cooperated with the investigations. At the same time, the list of supporters for the CPMI request gained another 25 deputies.

Lack of transparency in the Adélio Bispo case

The possible link between Adélio Bispo’s lawyers and organized crime, pointed out after an operation by the Federal Police, is a case in which the lack of transparency on the part of the Lula government is more evident, according to political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, from Ibmec-MG . The PF, already with the board sworn in by the current government, would have triggered a new operation on the case, but which was not disclosed by the corporation.

“This is an extremely serious process that is an assassination attempt, a political attack against a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic. [em 2018]”, he pointed out. Cerqueira also points out that in this case, the government of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was unable to act because all its initiatives were treated as interference in the Federal Police.

Internal sources of the Federal Police told the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo that secrecy in the operation – last month – would have been necessary to avoid damage to the investigation still in progress, unlike what normally happens, in which the press is informed of the actions. But, according to the vehicle, there was another factor: the disagreement of the PF leadership in the Lula government with the line followed by the current delegate in the case, Martin Bottaro.

In view of this, Federal Deputy General Girão (PL-RN) reinforces the need for a thorough investigation of the case. “It is strange to us that, until today, the payers of the very expensive lawyers who defended [Adélio Bispo] nor their respective constituents. Certainly, they are still “curtained” by the main interested parties”, says the congressman.

Until then, investigations by the Federal Police had indicated that Adélio Bispo acted alone in the attack against the former president, due to mental insanity, according to repeated psychiatric reports made at different stages of the investigation. This led him to be considered incompetent and to comply with security measures at the Federal Penitentiary of Campo Grande (MS).

The conclusion, however, has always been questioned by the family of Jair Bolsonaro, who put forward the thesis that the author of the stabbing would have acted at the behest of someone. The suspicion arose mainly due to the lack of information on who would have funded Adélio Bispo’s defense.

Impeachment calls depend on popular support; images weaken governance

The opposition, in the House and Senate, has been betting on recent events to swell the chorus of impeachment requests against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Noronha points out that a process of weakening Lula has begun, which is aggravated by the fall in the PT’s popularity. He also assesses that, given the Brazilian history of impeachment processes, “without the effective support of people on the streets, it will not happen”.

The assessment of Adriano Gianturco, coordinator of the international relations course at IBMEC-MG, is that it is an “important wound” open in the government, but that it is not yet “a mortal wound” to the point of ending in the impeachment of the president Squid.

For the government deputy Pompeo de Mattos, the PT administration would be the “victim” in this process. “The fact that the government locked the CPMI created a false narrative, that it had problems. And I don’t see what the problem is that the government has”, argued the congressman from Rio Grande do Sul. For him, the CPMI will serve to punish those who have to be punished, either by action or by omission, with penalties measured by the proportionality of the acts.

With regard to governance, the dissemination of videos about the performance of former minister Gonçalves Dias on January 8 brought more discomfort for the PT administration. With 101 days of delay, Lula was forced to react to the facts, under accusation from the opposition that he was hiding them.

For Arthur Wittenberg, public policy professor at Ibmec-DF, the installation of the CPMI could also cause significant delays in the processing of legislative proposals of interest to the government, including the economic agenda. “The commission should occupy a good part of the national agenda, reducing space for debate in other areas, such as health, education and the environment”, he underlined. “The government’s energy will have to be divided between day-to-day coordination and damage containment at the CPMI,” he said.