Global emissions from fossil fuels will be record in 2023, reports project – 04/12/2023 – Environment

Scientists have said global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are on track to hit a record high this year, exacerbating climate change and fueling more destructive extreme weather events.

The report on the Global Carbon Budget, published in the early hours of Tuesday (5) in Dubai (Monday night, in Brazil), during COP28, showed that total CO emissions_twowhich reached a record last year, are expected to stabilize in 2023 due to a slight reduction in emissions associated with land use, such as deforestation.

Countries are expected to emit a total of 36.8 billion metric tons of CO_two from fossil fuels in 2023, an increase of 1.1% compared to last year, concluded the report with the participation of scientists from more than 90 institutions, including the University of Exeter.

When emissions from land use are included, global CO emissions_two they should total 40.9 billion tons this year.

Despite projecting a reduction in emissions from land use, the report points out that, due to a large degree of uncertainty, the downward trend still needs to be confirmed.

Emissions from coal, oil and gas have increased, driven by India and China. China’s surge was caused by the reopening of its economy following Covid-19-related lockdowns, while India’s surge was a result of energy demand growing faster than the country’s renewable energy capacity, leaving fossil fuels to supply it. the gap.

The trajectory of this year’s emissions takes the world further away from preventing global warming from exceeding 1.5°C above the average temperature of pre-industrial times.

“It now seems inevitable that we will exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter, who led the research.

Countries agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep warming well below 2°C and aim for 1.5°C. Scientists have said more than 1.5°C will trigger more serious and irreversible impacts, including fatal heat, catastrophic flooding and the death of coral reefs.

“Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree to rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2°C target alive,” Friedlingstein said.

The IPCC (acronym in English for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) stated that global emissions must decrease by 43% by 2030, to meet the 1.5°C limit.

Instead, emissions have increased in recent years. The Covid-19 pandemic caused a brief interruption to this trend, but emissions are now 1.4% above pre-Covid levels.

Researchers at the Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said last month that China’s greenhouse gas emissions could begin to enter “structural decline” as early as next year due to record installations. of renewable energy.

China is responsible for 31% of global CO emissions_two from fossil fuels.

The new report cited some positives, with emissions in the United States and the European Union declining, driven in part by the retirement of coal plants.

Overall, 26 countries representing 28% of global emissions are now on a downward trend. Most are in Europe, researchers said.