Fossil projection is incompatible with the Paris Agreement – 11/08/2023 – Environment

Government plans around the world indicate that fossil fuel production in 2030 should be double what would be allowed to comply with the Paris Agreement.

A new report, published this Wednesday (8), points out that countries must produce 110% more oil, gas and coal at the end of the decade than would be necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C and 69% more than which would be consistent with a planet 2°C hotter.

These percentages translate, respectively, into 22 GtCO_twoeq (billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, unit of measurement that adds up the gases that cause global warming) and 17 GtCO_twoeq more emitted in relation to what would be necessary to meet temperature targets.

Projections also indicate that by 2050 the magnitude of the production gap will reach around 29 GtCO_twoeq e 22 GtCO_twoeq, respectively.

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aims to keep the increase in the global average temperature “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. The measure is necessary to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

This is the fourth edition of the Production Gap report, prepared since 2019 to show the large discrepancy between countries’ planned production of fossil fuels and the global production levels needed to stop the climate crisis.

The document is produced by the United Nations Environment Programme, Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, E3G and the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Science has pointed out for decades that it is essential that there be a drastic cut in the amount of carbon dioxide that is thrown into the atmosphere to avoid catastrophic warming of the planet. Despite this, CO emissions_two —almost 90% of which come from fossil fuels— continues to grow and reached a new record in 2022.

The new analysis takes into account the plans of 19 major fossil fuel producing countries: Germany, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, China, Colombia, United Arab Emirates, United States, India, Indonesia, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria , Norway, Qatar, United Kingdom and Russia.

Together, they account for around 80% of global oil, gas and coal production. This data was then extrapolated to calculate a global estimate of the future scenario of this sector.

Among these nations, government projections are available for 9 coal-producing countries (which represented 93% of global production in 2021), 17 oil-producing countries (74% of world production) and 18 gas-producing countries (72% of global production). global).

The survey says that the main fossil fuel producing countries have committed to achieving net zero emissions and have launched initiatives to reduce emissions from this production, but highlights: none of them have made commitments consistent with what is necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Ploy Achakulwisut, one of the main authors of the study and a scientist at SEI, points out that the gap between fossil production and the reduction of emissions agreed in the Paris Agreement conflicts with climate goals and commitments to net zero emissions announced by countries.

“We concluded that the size of the production gap remained largely unchanged compared to our previous assessments,” he says. “Thus, despite encouraging signs that there is an emerging clean energy transition, the persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.”

UN (United Nations) Secretary-General António Guterres says the new report is an “alarming indictment of uncontrolled climate negligence.” “Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production; that means twice as much trouble for people and the planet,” he declares.

“We cannot address climate catastrophe without tackling the root of the problem: dependence on fossil fuels. Fossil fuel emissions are already causing climate chaos that is devastating lives and livelihoods, and we are on track for something much worse.”

The Brazilian position

Brazil is one of those helping to push this trend upward. The country is currently eighth in the world in oil production, 27th in gas production and 29th in coal production.

In March, however, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, announced plans to scale national production and make Brazil the fourth largest global oil producer.

In the same week, the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates, said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency that the state-owned company “will gain market share”. “We may be the last to produce oil in the world,” he said.

Both the ministry and the oil company are at the center of the controversy surrounding the exploration of the Foz do Amazonas basin, which is located on the so-called Brazilian equatorial margin, considered by the industry to be a new frontier. The start of drilling depends on the opinion of Ibama (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Natural Resources).

Silveira has also been announcing incentives to expand the gas market in the country and has already referred to oil and gas as “the wealth of the Brazilian people that is underground”.

“Without measures to promote its exploration and production, there are no jobs, income or regional development. We have a window of opportunity, we cannot lose the new pre-salt that could be on the equatorial margin and that will be the passport to the future of the Northern regions and Northeast of Brazil”, he said in a statement at the beginning of the year.

The Brazilian energy plan foresees that oil production will grow by 63%, and gas production, by 124% between 2022 and 2032, says the Production Gap Report.

Energy transition needs to be accelerated

Although the report covers two dozen countries, the contribution of the largest producers is much higher than that of others. Three nations account for about half of global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel extraction: China, the United States and Russia.

According to data from the International Energy Agency, China produces, as well as consumes, around half of the world’s coal supply.

In turn, the USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia produce around 40% of the world’s oil, while the Americans and Russians are, by far, the largest gas producers in the world.

The document highlights that governments need to adopt short- and long-term reduction targets for the production and use of fossil fuels — and that those with greater capacity to transition to renewable sources must make faster cuts.

“An equitable transition away from fossil fuel production must recognize countries’ differentiated responsibilities and capabilities. Governments with greater transition capacity must seek more ambitious reductions and help finance transition processes in countries with limited capabilities,” it says.

This type of division of responsibilities should be the subject of discussions in a few weeks, during COP28, the UN climate summit, which will take place from November 30 in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates — an oil power that produces, on average, 3.2 million barrels per day.

Just like the flag raised by Petrobras, the COP will bring together other large producers vying for the position of who will be the last to stop extracting fossil fuels.

“This is the crux of the problem. Major producers are not willing to transition away from fossil fuel production easily,” says Achakulwisut.