Fossil methane emissions remain at high levels – 03/13/2024 – Environment

Methane emissions from fossil fuels remained at levels close to records in 2023, states the analysis published this Wednesday (13) by the IEA (International Energy Agency).

Energy production linked to oil, gas and coal “generated almost 120 million tons of methane emissions in 2023, slightly above the 2022 result”, but “they are expected to decrease soon”, says the report “Global Methane Tracker 2024”, which monitors emissions around the world.

The reduction would be motivated by the changes initiated in the sector and the commitments made at COP28, the UN climate conference held in Dubai in 2023.

“An additional ten million tons come from bioenergy”, such as the use of wood for cooking, points out the IEA.

Methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after CO_twois the natural gas molecule that escapes from gas pipelines, coal mines and stoves, but also from cows, rice fields and waste.

Almost 580 million tons of methane are emitted per year, of which 60% is attributable to human activity (mainly agriculture) and almost a third to natural wetlands.

Methane is much more potent than CO_two, but its useful life is considerably shorter (almost a decade). Scientists indicate that it is responsible for approximately 30% of global warming since the Industrial Revolution.

Methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry remain close to the 2019 record and are a far cry from the 75% reduction needed by 2030 to maintain the planet’s warming limit at 1.5°C, as set by the Paris Agreement.

“There is no reason for these emissions to remain so high”, criticized Tim Gould, chief economist at the IEA.

In 2023, “almost 40% could have been avoided at no net cost, as the value of the methane captured and sold is greater than the costs spent on preventing leaks”, explains the IEA.

Reducing these emissions by 75% would cost “around US$170 billion [cerca de R$ 844 bilhões de reais]less than 5% of the fossil fuel industry’s revenue in 2023”, adds the agency.

Almost two-thirds of the methane emitted by the fossil fuel industry “comes from just ten countries”, highlighted Christophe McGlade, an energy expert at the IEA.

China is “by far” the biggest emitter of methane from coal, and the United States, due to oil and gas, closely followed by Russia.

Inflection point

Among the “worrying trends”, Christophe McGlade mentions the large spills detected by satellite, which “have increased by more than 50% compared to 2022”, representing an additional 5 million tons.

One of them, gigantic, in Kazakhstan, lasted almost 200 days.

Despite the scenario, the AIE remains optimistic. “The important policies and regulations announced in recent months, as well as the new commitments made at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, may soon lead to the reduction,” says the institution.

At COP28, 52 oil and gas companies committed to adopting a “near-zero methane” policy in their operations by 2030, but the pledge was met with skepticism.

More than 150 countries, including COP29 host Azerbaijan, have also joined the Global Methane Pledge initiative, which aims to reduce emissions by 30% between 2020 and 2030.

“If all the promises are fulfilled perfectly and on time, they will reduce emissions by around 50% by 2030,” said Christophe McGlade.

The new commitments, however, “have not yet been supported by detailed plans”, according to the analyst.