Flávio keeps Bolsonaro’s threat to Eduardo Paes alive – 01/04/2023 – Politics

The move by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to make his name available for the Rio de Janeiro City Hall dispute in the 2024 election keeps alive the threat made by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) during last year’s election campaign.

Bolsonaro promised to “pay back” in 2024 in Paes due to the mayor’s support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and the criticism leveled at his management in the federal government. There is, now, expectation about the former president’s real personal interest in the dispute.

Flávio’s entry into the dispute is still seen with suspicion in Rio’s political environment. The presentation of his name for the candidacy has been seen as a way to maintain an active voice in choosing the opponent of the mayor of the former president’s electoral base.

The senator’s objective was also to limit the recent movements of Governor Cláudio Castro (PL), who had been signaling his intention to impose a name of his choice (Dr. Luizinho, from the PP, current State Secretary of Health) and rehearsing, for some, a approach with Paes.

Flávio’s entry into the pre-campaign required Castro to recompose with Bolsonarism, which he had been gradually moving away from since the end of the election campaign.

The ex-president’s son also limited the negotiations of Eduardo Paes, who has already managed to attract União Brasil to his government.

The prospect of a direct confrontation with the Bolsonaro family meant that the mayor was able to practically guarantee the alliance with the PT, PSB and PDT, but it made it difficult for other acronyms to approach the center.

Bolsonaro kicked off the 2024 run for Rio de Janeiro City Hall on the last day of last year’s presidential campaign. Alongside Castro, the former president called Paes a bum, a liar and ungrateful and threatened: “He’ll get his payback in 2024.”

In response, Paes provoked the former president to run for municipal dispute. “Come and compete with me in 2024.”

Flávio’s entry into the pre-campaign was endorsed by the former president.

The confidence that the project can be successful comes from the result at the city’s polls last year: despite Paes’ commitment in the second round in favor of Lula, Bolsonaro won the PT in the city with 52.7% of the valid votes. The former president even managed to widen the difference for Lula in relation to the first round.

Allies of the senator also highlight the relatively good result obtained in the mayoral race in 2016, before Bolsonaro’s election, when Flávio ran without his father’s consent and obtained 14% of the valid votes. He had just 64,000 less than Pedro Paulo, the name of Paes at the time, who also stayed out of the second round.

However, there are doubts whether Bolsonaro will maintain his personal interest in the dispute, at the risk of defeat in his electoral domicile. People close to the senator claim that, this time, Flávio will not go against his father’s assessment at the risk of harming his national project.

Allies of the senator claim that the move is mainly aimed at preventing the dispersal of Bolsonaristas in negotiations for next year.

One of those who threatened to break away was Cláudio Castro. The governor was fighting an internal dispute for control of the PL-RJ under the risk of changing parties. At the same time that he acted as guarantor of the agreement in the state directory, Flávio made his name available.

Castro maintains a good dialogue with Paes, an asset that the mayor intended to use to attract the governor to his alliance. With the senator’s entry into the pre-campaign, the governor saw his movements limited. He maintains the defense of the candidacy of dr. Luizinho, but does not close the doors to support Flávio.

Negotiations for 2024 between Flávio and Castro collide with the intentions of both for the 2026 election. The senator’s main project is his re-election, while the governor is also aiming for a seat in the Senate.

The next election offers two vacancies per state, but sewing the two would exclude Senator Carlos Portinho (PL), elected as an alternate for Arolde de Oliveira, who died in 2020. One of the options studied is to nominate Portinho as a candidate for mayor, if his son of the former president chooses not to run.

Another option discussed within the PL-RJ is that of deputy Eduardo Pazuello, Bolsonaro’s former Minister of Health. He hasn’t shown much interest in the mission, but he keeps the conversations open.

Eduardo Paes also has the 2026 election on the map for the 2024 negotiations. The mayor must run for state government, which makes the runner-up on the ticket a prime space for negotiation.

The mayor has been insisting on choosing federal deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD), his right-hand man, for the post. One of the possibilities is that he joins a party in the alliance that is being formed, such as União Brasil, in order to contemplate another acronym on the ticket.

Paes intends to maintain this design until the eve of the conventions, in order to have an ace up his sleeve to attract other parties, if the electoral scenario so requires. His team says he is not afraid to face Flávio Bolsonaro, and considers that he will not be an obstacle to the fourth term at the head of the municipality – which would make him the politician with the longest time in charge of the city in history.

The mayor has already managed to attract the PT to the project in advance, by assigning it three secretariats this year.

The movement, articulated by the vice-president of the acronym, Washington Quaquá, displeased the wing that defended leaving the negotiations for next year so that it could plead the vice-president of the ticket. Deputy Lindbergh Farias advocated for an alliance with Deputy Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) to remain an option.

The MDB-RJ is another party that Paes is considering trying to attract. The acronym officially confirmed the pre-candidacy of Bolsonarist deputy Otoni de Paula.