Fiscal framework is good, pro-market and more conservative than I would like – 03/30/2023 – Reinaldo Azevedo

Ready! At least the guidelines for the proposal for a new fiscal framework have been defined. There is some embarrassment among those who expected a messed up section. “It won’t work; this framework necessarily depends on high revenues.” AND? Why? With low revenue, expenditure also falls. I don’t know if you notice, but it announces the opposite of what the hawks of fiscalism expect “from the left”: using the State to boost the economy in times of crisis. On the contrary: if things go well, you spend more, but with limits, which would allow you to make a quilt for possible winter days; if not, the opposite. I even think I’m more “progressive” than the government in this case… If that doesn’t work either, then what?

On the 89th day of the Lula administration, I carry out a focus scoop and take stock of the hundred. Behold, the presentation of such a framework coincides with the return of the rogue who was murdered in Orlando. You can still timely celebrate the mark of the 700 thousand dead from Covid. After all, everyone dies one day. I notice efforts to normalize Bolsonarism as a counterpoint to PTism. There is no virtue in the territories of death. Point, paragraph.

In the parallel world “Duzmercáduz”, there was a delay in the presentation of the text. In the world of facts, it came to light five months early. According to the Transition PEC, the deadline was August 31. It is that PEC that would anticipate Armageddon, but with the victory of iniquitous developmentalists against the God of Fiscal Responsibility. A primary deficit of up to R$ 261.6 billion was forecast for this year. Today, it is estimated that it could be at R$ 100 billion, something like 1% of the GDP.

I always like to read, in retrospect, these “Findomundist” predictions, usually coming from what they call “analysts”, who are operators who command brokerage houses whose names deserve a study by linguists. Those that resort to words known in some language appeal to supposed premonitory gifts, announcing smiling tomorrows to customers. When it comes to analyzing public accounts, however, the tone is almost always gloomy.

A proposal for a framework imposing that expenses can grow, at most, the equivalent of 70% of the increase in revenues, establishing a minimum (0.6%) and maximum (2.5%) limit for such expansion reconciles fiscal responsibility with a bit of “social responsibility”, an expression that makes some people shudder. More: education and health receive, respectively, 18% and 15% of Current Net Revenue. There is no way to subordinate them to the 70% rule; therefore, other expenses have to grow less.

The key point, it seems, of some disagreements is that 0.6% floor for spending growth and the search for a guarantee for a minimum of public investment. The right decided to invoke Lula’s age and her supposed pastism. Hatred of the State is the oldest, musty, outdated and, above all, hypocritical thing. When are these brave men going to invoke the comrade interest of Plano Safra? Note: I recommend not to do this. It would be stupid.

The government text is good for the circumstances. It is more conservative than I would like and what “Uzmercáduz” expected. The final word will be with Congress. If the country starts from a primary deficit of 1% this year and reaches a surplus of 1% in 2026, leaving the red already next year, it will be a great achievement. My anticipated balance of the hundred days also includes the victory over the coup plot, the action against the Yanomami genocide, the correct restructuring of Bolsa Família, the resumption of Minha Casa, Minha Vida, the relaunch of the Food Acquisition Program and the the return of Mais Médicos. It’s a good way. If I’m wrong, the right ones get their fill of potatoes.

Ah, yes: Roberto Campos Neto, president of BC, seems ready to give an initial vote of confidence. Good boy! At a press conference this Thursday (30), he said that, in order to meet this year’s inflation target, interest rates should be at 26.5% – a real rate, therefore, of around 20%. Can you imagine? It would starve those who didn’t die of Covid, that of the Lord of the Territories of Death. It is a sign that there is no possible fiscal framework that moves the heart of our pharaoh.

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