Federal collection has a real drop of 3.4% in June, to R$ 180.47 billion

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Information was released this Thursday by the Federal Revenue. In the first half, federal collection still broke a record, but there was a sharp slowdown in the pace of growth compared to the same period in 2022. The collection of taxes, contributions and other federal revenue recorded a real drop (after discounting inflation) of 3.4% in June this year, to R$ 180.47 billion. The information was released this Tuesday (25) by the Federal Revenue Service. This was the second monthly drop in revenue this year. In March, the collection had already retreated 0.42% in real terms. In part of the first half of this year, the collection of federal taxes totaled R$ 1.14 trillion. With values ​​corrected for inflation, it totaled R$ 1.15 trillion, with real growth of 0.31%. Despite still being a historic record in the first six months of this year, there was a sharp deceleration in the pace of growth compared to the same period last year – when the collection had a real increase of 17.96%. Atypical factors According to the Federal Revenue, the collection result was influenced by changes in tax legislation and atypical payments, both in 2022 and in 2023. The agency cited, for example, the reduction of PIS and Contribution for Social Security Financing (Cofins) on ethanol and gasoline – whose federal taxation was only resumed at the end of last month. This factor, informed the Tax Authorities, generated a loss of collection of R$ 3 billion in June. On the other hand, there was an increase of R$ 1.4 billion in federal revenue last month due to the export tax on oil, defined by the government in early March. The Federal Revenue also informed that the drop in collection was motivated by an “atypical collection” of R$ 6 billion in IRPJ and CSLL in June of last year – which was not repeated this year. Fiscal framework The figures are released at a time when the National Congress is discussing the fiscal framework, the new rule for public accounts – which replaces the spending ceiling (current mechanism that limits most of the collection to the previous year’s inflation). The fiscal framework was approved by the Senate plenary last month, but, as it was changed by the senators, it will require a new analysis by the Chamber of Deputies. The fiscal framework rule depends on revenue growth. A survey carried out by economists at Warren Rena brokerage indicates the need for at least R$ 254 billion in revenue increase, by 2026, to reach the baseline of the primary result targets of the fiscal framework presented by the economic team. In April, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, stated that it is necessary to increase the government’s revenue by an amount between R$ 110 billion and R$ 150 billion to close the gap in the government’s accounts, the objective of the economic team for next year. Since then, it has been working on measures to increase revenue. The main one is related to a decision by the Superior Court of Justice (STJ), which defined in April that taxes should be levied on certain tax incentives given by states to companies and won the case to the federal government. The economic area has informed that it will also seek to raise revenue with other measures, which will still be presented to the Legislative, such as the end of interest on equity and through the taxation of exclusive funds.

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