Elections reinforce the crisis of the parties threatened by the barrier clause

With the advance of the effects of the electoral reform approved in 2017, the 2022 election left in the spotlight 16 parties that did not reach the minimum percentage of votes and others housed in party federations. Its elected deputies were left without access to resources and legislative structure or depend on other parties to get some support from the Treasury.

The ongoing negotiations for the 2024 municipal elections reinforce the pressures on their leaders generated by the so-called barrier clause, with threats of co-option and disbandment of affiliates. Although it does not involve the dispute for seats in the Chamber, essential for the survival of these fragile parties, the race for city halls and city councils serves as a preview for the decisive election of 2026.

For the upcoming general election, the imposed clause will require parties to elect at least 13 federal deputies in at least a third of the states. As for the 2023 elections, this level will increase to 15 federal deputies.

The traditional PSC tried to merge with Podemos, to the advantage of both, and the New, ideologically opposed to the use of public resources, had to be pragmatic and began to access the income from its quotas in the party fund. But the main proof of the high degree of tensions generated by this scenario emerged a week ago with the leak of the video with an argument that took over an online meeting of the Cidadania summit. The party associated with the PSDB evaluated the continuity of this federation and almost split in the middle of the discussion, marginalizing its historic leader, Roberto Freire.

The heated meeting of the National Executive of the former PCB and PPS had, among other reasons, the possibility of the party being part of the base of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). A new command will be elected on the 9th of September and the tendency has become to join the Planalto. The party’s five deputies – Alex Manente (SP), Arnaldo Jardim (SP), Any Ortiz (RS), Amon Mandel (AM) and Carmen Zanotto (SC) – reaffirmed, together with Freire, their independence.

Manente, close to the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), was concerned about the effects of these fights on the party’s performance in the 2024 polls, leading to the definitive loss of control over the party fund. To complicate the internal dissidence of Cidadania, the PSDB positioned itself as opposition to Lula, saw the departure of three senators since March 2022 and is still at risk of losing other important names.

Deputy Adriana Ventura (Novo-SP) confirmed to People’s Gazette that the evolution of the electoral scenario from the results of the polls in 2022 forced the party leadership to reflect on its objective conditions in the new party reality without giving up its own flags, marked by criticism of the dependence of parties on billionaire public funds. “The most important thing is to face the facts without retreating from what we defend as fair and correct for the country and what makes us different. We have to resist and keep taking our message forward,” he said.

Only 12 of the 28 parties and federations that competed for votes in 2022 managed to reach the barrier or performance clause, as provided for in Constitutional Amendment 97/2017. Until 2026, this group formed by the federations PT/PCdoB/PV, PSDB/Cidadania and Psol/Rede, in addition to MDB, PDT, PL, Podemos, PP, PSB, PSD, Republicans and the Union will be able to access the party fund and have propaganda free radio and television.

Of the 16 parties that did not reach the threshold of votes, seven elected deputies, but in an insufficient number to comply with the law, of at least 11 elected or 2% of the valid votes in the elections for the Chamber in nine states of the Federation, with a minimum of 1% of the valid votes for each of them. They are Avante, PSC, Solidariedade, Patriota, PTB, Novo and Pros. The others — Agir, DC, PCB, PCO, PMB, PMN, PRTB, PSTU and UP — were excluded from Parliament, confirming the partisan downsizing sought by Amendment 97.

MDB and PSDB: fewer governors and fewer mayors

Despite being united in a federation with other parties, MDB and PSDB lost the largest number of city halls in the comparison of the 1st round of 2016 and 2020. The PSDB went from 785 to 512 elected mayors – that is, 273 less. The MDB lost 261 city halls, going from 1,035 to 774 city halls. But what explains this drop?

Alongside the PT, the acronyms were the main parties in the redemocratization process after the military dictatorship. However, they lost space for the growth of the right, enlisted by Bolsonaro, and the strengthening of Centrão parties at the municipal level. The PP, for example, went from 495 to 681 city halls. The PSD went from 539 to 650.

It is important to point out that the numbers mentioned do not consider any party changes that occurred in recent years, but rather the effective number of mayors elected by each party.

The change in the state scenario can also explain part of this drop. In 2010, the party founded by former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso had eight governors and had great electoral strength among municipalities. After 12 years, the acronym has only Eduardo Leite, in Rio Grande do Sul; Raquel Lyra, in Pernambuco; and Eduardo Riedel, in Mato Grosso do Sul.

Former President Michel Temer’s party is on the same path. The legend already had 9 of the 27 governors of the country, in 1994. After almost 30 years, the MDB has only three state managers: Ibaneis Rocha (DF), Helder Barbalho (PA) and Paulo Dantas (AL).

Political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), explains that the Brazilian political scene has changed and that the discredit of parties has contributed to the downfall of major parties.

“The Brazilian political scenario has undergone quite significant changes in recent years. There has been discredit on the large party organizations. Of all the parties that were affected by the corruption scandals, the only one that managed to recover electorally at the national level was the PT. The others parties that were involved in corruption scandals suffered a lot, which is the case of the MDB and the PSDB. In the case of the MDB, he understood that it is very competitive for proportional elections, for legislative posts in state assemblies and in the Federal Chamber. He lost this space in the Municipal and State Executive, but it continues to have a very significant presence from the legislative point of view”, said the scientist.

Commenting on the situation of the PSDB, he adds, explaining that the party’s internal conflicts also contributed to the party’s poor performance in the last elections.

“The reasons for the loss of city halls and state governments by the PSDB can be explained by the internal fight that existed within the party, such as the one between Doria and Alckmin. Look what happened: Alckmin is Lula’s deputy. Then there was the dispute between Doria and Eduardo Leite. The party has been going through a restructuring process that can be seen as a need to promote what we call the party’s internal specialization”.

For political scientist Antônio Henrique Lucena, professor at the Catholic University of Pernambuco (Unicap), the weakening of the MDB was already highlighted during the government of former president Dilma Rousseff, when the party became the focus of attention during the impeachment process.

“Over the years, we have had a process of changing the characteristics of the electorate itself, which I see as an important element. Mainly the transformations of the 2000s, which the MDB, over time, lost many retailers. This loss weakened the MDB in the national scenario. There was already an interest in weakening the MDB during the government of Dilma Rousseff, when there was a movement of migration to the PSD of Kassab”, said the professor.

Regarding the PSDB, Lucena argues that internal disputes have also weakened the party over the years. “In the case of the PSDB, he committed autophagy. Mainly because of the fratricidal internal disputes that took place and followed over time, with emphasis on the dispute between Eduardo Leite and João Doria for the Presidency. They missed the boat of history and, consequently, the large number of councilors, mayors, state governors and losing relevance at the national level, ”he said.

PSDB between crisis and refoundation

The launch event for new PSDB guidelines, which took place on Thursday (24), shows that the party wants to regain political relevance on the national scene. The invitation made by Eduardo Leite, president of the party, to federal deputy Aécio Neves shows that the acronym is looking for remaining leaders to secure itself for the next elections.

Aécio distanced himself from the command of the party after having his name involved in the scandals of Operation Lava Jato. He was acquitted by the Federal Regional Court of the 3rd Region (TRF-3) of the accusation of having received bribes of BRL 2 million from businessman Joesley Batista, from J&F, in 2017.

Despite Leite’s intention, the refounding movement encounters obstacles in the movements of other parties that wish to capture relevant names from the PSDB. This is the case of Raquel Lyra.

Seeking political support, the Pernambuco governor strengthened ties with Kassab’s party and swore in Cacau de Paula (PSD) as Secretary of Culture of Pernambuco. The former Secretary of Tourism for Recife is the daughter of the Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture, André de Paula, PSD state president.

The lack of representation of the PSDB in the Legislative Assembly of Pernambuco (Alepe) is also mentioned as another reason for Raquel’s possible change of party. With only three state deputies, the head of the municipal executive is in a political chess game to maintain governance in the state.

In addition, the declared opposition of the PSDB to the Lula government can also give a push to change. With the PSD, Raquel would avoid conflict with Planalto and would ensure that resources continued to flow to the state, which is currently at the top of the unemployment list.