Elections in the Chamber and Senate will leave debt for Lula – 01/31/2023 – Bruno Boghossian
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Even if Lula does not face surprises in the congressional elections, the government will be far from leaving the dispute in a comfortable situation. Arthur Lira’s (PP) likely cleanup in the Chamber and the opposition’s articulations in the Senate should leave a high bill for the president in building his support base.
Mass adherence to Lira’s re-election transformed the deputy into a kind of sovereign plenary operator. By announcing the decision not to interfere in the dispute, the government had to give up exercising its power of political coordination and left the way free for the current president of the Chamber to organize his own coalition.
With a capital re-election, Lira will demonstrate influence over deputies who, today, are outside the government’s orbit. Allies of the president of the Chamber and government politicians say that this scenario would force Lula to call Lira to participate in the distribution of funds and positions for these parliamentarians.
The president of the Chamber would enter these negotiations as the leader of deputies who were not attended to in the troubled division of ministries — both in parties that declare themselves independent (PP and Republicans) and in those that were split (União Brasil).
This Wednesday’s election (1st) should also give Lula the final proof that the negotiation of positions in the first echelon was insufficient to build a firm allied base in the Senate. In recent days, the government had to abandon the neutrality discourse and enter the circuit to try to avoid a defeat by Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD).
In an effort to hold votes for Bolsonarist Rogério Marinho (PL) within government alliance parties, Lula’s operators had to anticipate an offer of positions in the public machine that should only take place after the election.
If Pacheco wins, the government will have to honor its debt to these senators. If he loses, Lula will sweat (and spend) to avoid successive defeats on the Senate floor.
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