Elections in Portugal isolate Lula from the West and delay Mercosur-EU agreement

With the victory of the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party in Portugal, experts estimate that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) relationship with the country could be strained. The party’s victory reveals another stage in the rise of the right in Europe, could contribute to the PT’s distancing from Western countries, and could also make it even more difficult to close the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, which Lula has been striving to unlock. , according to experts interviewed by the report.

“At first, little changes in the Brazil-Portugal relationship. However, we can see some political impacts between the two countries, but I think what really worries is the Mercosur-European Union agreement. Today, Portugal is in favor of the agreement and, with this change of government [em decorrência da vitória da Aliança Democrática], the new tends to position itself against it. One more country against it could end the negotiations once and for all”, says José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB).

The political impact predicted by analysts concerns the rise of the right in the country which, in the last nine years, has been led by a progressive party. Lula and the current president of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, maintain a good relationship. Rebelo, in fact, was in Brasília to attend the PT member’s inauguration in January 2023. The two also met in April of the same year, on a visit by Lula to Portugal.

As it failed to obtain the minimum number of seats (115) to nominate the prime minister, the Democratic Alliance (AD), which won 79 seats in the Portuguese Parliament, needs to ally with another party to govern the country. The party can form coalitions with Chega, a right-wing nationalist party – which won 77 seats -, or with the center-left Socialist Party (PS) – which elected 48 parliamentarians. It is these alliances that will determine what the relationship between Brazil and Portugal will be like from now on.

For International Policy consultant Guilherme Gomes, from BMJ Consultores Associados, if there is a coalition between AD and Chega, there is the possibility that the second party will try to influence the new Portuguese government to reduce its diplomatic proximity to Brazil. “However, there should not be an abrupt break in diplomatic relations, which tend to be more stable”, he assesses.

Chega’s leader, André Ventura, with conservative agendas and strong speeches against migration, criticized Lula during the election campaign. The politician even stated that Lula would not be received in Portugal if he were elected prime minister. Despite the energetic speech, Guilherme Gomes explains that, in a coalition scenario between AD and Chega, the situation should not generate friction as impactful as that mentioned by Ventura.

“During the government of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), when Portugal was governed by the Socialist Party, there were some diplomatic incidents between the countries, but not enough to permanently affect this relationship”, ponders the BMJ consultant.

“On the other hand, if the coalition is closed between the Democratic Alliance (AD) and the Socialist Party (PS), the expectation is that diplomatic relations with Brazil will remain unchanged, considering the good relationship and proximity of the PS with the government Lula”, says Gomes.

Mercosur-European Union agreement may be impacted

For experts, Lula’s biggest concern regarding the change in the political scenario in Portugal is the fate of the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. Negotiations have lasted more than two decades, but the agreement has stalled due to disagreements between the parties.

Furthermore, the agreement has taken on a more political than economic bias, which has caused noise among European Union countries. In the middle of this year, the European Parliament, the organization’s legislative body, will have elections and new figures will be elected to handle the body’s discussions. With the growth of the right in European countries, this movement should also extend to the EU.

According to Gomes, it is possible that the Portuguese will elect, for the first time, an MEP from the nationalist right to the European Parliament. “As a result, it is possible that relations between Brazil and the European Union will be weakened in the medium term, depending on the result of the European election this year”, he assesses.

For Castro, president of AEB, negotiations could become even more difficult. “The big problem is that countries that are against [o acordo] have more say in these negotiations, even if they are not the majority. If opposition increases, as a way of pleasing farmers and producers in their countries, the agreement could actually die”, he points out.

Lula’s departure from the West

Lula, who has already stated that he is proud to be called “communist” and “socialist”, has adopted more radical speeches in this third term. The PT member has already come out in defense of Russia and the terrorist group Hamas in the face of the wars they caused against Ukraine and Israel, respectively.

He has also been getting closer to China, to Chinese autocrat Xi Jinping.

On several occasions, Lula defended and repeated speeches from the Communist Party of China. In 2023, she accused the G7 (a group of the seven most industrialized countries in the world formed by Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom) of causing the war between Russia and Ukraine in Europe.

The Brazilian also went so far as to say that both countries would be equally to blame for the conflict initiated by Russia in Europe, which began after Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine.

Recently, Lula accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinian people due to the Israeli counteroffensive in the Gaza Strip against Hamas. The terrorist group attacked Israel on October 7, 2023 and started the conflict in the region.

While Western countries demand a more coherent stance from the Brazilian president, Lula has reinforced these radical speeches. After the accusations against Israel, members of the United States government rebuked the PT member’s statements, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the Brazilian persona non grata for Israel. In other words, Lula is no longer welcome in the country.

Lula has also caused discomfort among Western countries by coming to the defense of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Accused of a series of crimes against human rights, Maduro has been pressured by the international community to hold democratic elections in his country. The Venezuelan, however, has gone in the opposite direction of democracy. In addition to making his opponents ineligible, he has ordered opposition politicians to be arrested.

The PT’s loss of strength in the West will worsen given the election scheduled for the end of this year in the United States. If former President Donald Trump is re-elected, the PT member’s relations with the country could cool down. The republican is an ally of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Growth of the right in Portugal

Although a more stable scenario for the new Portuguese government has not yet been formed, experts draw attention to the rise of the right in the country and in Europe. For the last nine years, Portugal has been led by the Socialist Party (PS), a center-left party that led with an absolute majority in the country’s Parliament. In this year’s election, however, the result showed a greater strength of parties with speeches aligned to the right.

In addition to the good performance obtained by the Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition, led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), there was a jump in the population’s votes for Chega. The party won 18.1% of the votes compared to 7.2% in 2022. As a result, it went from 12 to 46 deputies in Parliament.

The AD leader called the election result “the people’s desire for a different government”. “The Portuguese people have spoken. They want a different government, different policies, renewed parties and dialogue between their leaders… And that is what we are prepared to offer”, said Luís Montenegro, who leads the Democratic Alliance (AD).

This movement has also been seen in other European countries. In addition to those that are already governed by the right, experts estimate that there is a movement among the population to elect parties considered more conservative or “liberal” in the economic aspect in nations that are currently governed by progressive leaders.