Economic crisis became a landscape and changed the Argentine election – 10/24/2023 – Bruno Boghossian

A recurring question in electoral studies involves the reasons why, in some cases, the population votes against their economic interests. Doubt usually arises when the party that governs during a recession manages to remain in power or when poorer groups support a candidate who promises to cut social spending.

Voting in Argentina represents a challenge for analyzing voter behavior. Government leader Sergio Massa took the lead in the vote in a country experiencing rampant inflation. Chainsaw artist Javier Milei accumulated sympathy in low-income regions and then hit a point of stagnation.

Successive economic crises were integrated into the Argentine electoral landscape. Some analysts suspect that this cycle has numbed part of the population and created the feeling that no government official will solve the problem. At the same time, it created a demand for mind-blowing medicines and increased the relevance of previously secondary issues.

Milei did no better than his right-wing competitors for having a lucid economic program. The candidate drew attention with side issues, such as the release of weapons, and transformed dissatisfaction with the crisis into a feeling against the political elite. He captured the disillusioned voter by betting on the exotic solution of strangling the State.

The government reacted. In a country with high dependence on a social protection network, Massa artificially boosted these expenses and linked his rival to cutting benefits. He embodied the eccentric politician who admits managing economic ruin, but presents as a virtue the responsibility for palliative actions to address it.

Massa’s performance will depend on the credit given by voters to this precarious state of economic management, in addition to the fear of jumping in the dark with his rival. Milei, in turn, will have to convince Argentines that the country would survive the shake-up of its structures, with possible repercussions on its democracy.

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