Dollar rises slightly and goes to R$4.95, with expectations for employment data in the USA; Ibovespa falls

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The day before, the North American currency closed down 0.15%, quoted at R$4.9475. The main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange ended with a decline of 0.65%, at 128,341 points. 1 dollar notes Rafael Holanda/g1 The dollar is operating slightly higher this Tuesday (5), still with some doldrums on the agenda, waiting for clues about the interest rate decision in the United States. Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, has fallen. This is another day of expectations for employment data in the United States, which could influence the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank). In search of more clues, the market monitors a speech by Fed President Jerome Powell to Congress in the following days. See below for a summary of the markets. Dollar At 10:10 am, the dollar is up 0.05%, quoted at R$4.9501. See more quotes. The day before, the North American currency fell 0.15%, trading at R$4.9475. With the result, it accumulated: drop of 0.15% in the week and month; increase of 1.96% in the year. Ibovespa At the same time, Ibovespa closed down 0.03%, at 128,300 points. The day before, the index fell 0.65%, to 128,341 points. As a result, there was: a drop of 0.65% in the week and month; decline of 4.36% in the year. Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? What’s moving the markets? This Tuesday, parallel activity and confidence data are on the agenda as supporting real market interest, which is the direction of interest rates in the USA. There, data from the services sector will be released. On Wednesday (6), the ADP report comes out, with numbers on private jobs in the United States, and on Friday (8) there is the payroll, the most important report on the country’s labor market. This data is being watched carefully, especially at a time when American interest rates are already at their highest levels in decades — between 5.25% and 5.50% per year. This is because a job market that is still very hot could continue to generate inflationary pressure on the economy. On the other hand, if the numbers come in lower than expected or show a slowdown in job creation, it is a sign that high rates are putting pressure on the economy and this could serve as an incentive for the Fed to begin its interest rate cut cycle soon. . Still in the interest rate scenario, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, is expected to speak to the American Congress on Wednesday and Thursday (7). Investors await the speech, waiting for more signals about when rate cuts are likely to begin. In Europe, the ECB announces its decision on interest rates also on Thursday. The expectation is that the institution will maintain interest rates at a record level of 4%, but it is likely to reduce its outlook for inflation, in a nod to possible cuts. In China, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced on Tuesday an ambitious economic growth target for 2024 of around 5%, promising measures to transform the country’s development model and neutralize risks fueled by real estate developers. bankrupt and cities in debt. By setting a growth target similar to last year, which will be more difficult to achieve as the post-Covid recovery is losing momentum, Beijing is signaling that it is prioritizing growth over any reforms, even as Li promises new policies bold, analysts said. “It is more difficult to reach 5% this year than last year because the base number has become higher, indicating that top leaders are committed to supporting economic growth,” Tao Chuan, chief macro analyst at Soochow Securities, told the agency Reuters. Last year’s uneven growth highlighted China’s deep structural imbalances, from weak household consumption to increasingly low returns on investment, prompting calls for a new growth model. On the internal agenda, the Focus bulletin shows that financial market economists raised this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection, at the same time that they reduced inflation expectations for 2024. For this year, the growth estimate of the Brazilian economy rose from 1.75% to 1.77%. For 2025, the financial market’s forecast for an increase in GDP remained stable at 2%. Regarding the behavior of inflation, analysts at financial institutions lowered their expectations for 2024 – which fell from 3.80% to 3.76%. For 2025, the inflation estimate remained stable at 3.51% in the last week. Another highlight for producer prices, which fell 0.31% in January, the third consecutive month of deflation, reported the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) this Tuesday. The result led the index accumulated in 12 months to a retraction of 5.56%. In the previous month, the Producer Price Index (IPP) had fallen 0.20%. Among the 24 activities analyzed, IBGE pointed out that only eight had a drop in prices in the monthly comparison. “This sequence of negative IPP results comes after a series of three consecutive months of increases, between August and October last year. Despite the index of -0.31% in January, there is no widespread decline throughout the industry, as 15 sectors saw price increases”, highlighted Murilo Alvim, index analyst. The biggest influences on the January result came from oil refining and biofuels (-0.51 percentage points), extractive industries (0.23 pp), food (-0.18 pp) and metallurgy (0.07 pp). The oil refining and biofuels sector fell by 4.77% in the month, marking the second negative change in a row. The food sector saw a 0.74% drop in prices in January, after four consecutive positive results. According to the IBGE analyst, this is due to lower prices for sugar and soy derivatives. Considering the major economic categories, capital goods rose 0.55% in January, intermediate goods fell 0.88% and consumer goods rose 0.37%.

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