Does the Belém COP really start in Dubai? – 09/12/2023 – Environment

As they prepare for a new abnormal and dangerous heat wave this month, Brazilians have a special reason to closely monitor the second week of COP28, the United Nations’ main conference on climate change, which will continue until December 12, in Dubai.

In the desert landscapes of the United Arab Emirates, Brazil’s journey begins to make COP30, in two years’ time, in Belém, a watershed in global efforts to solve the climate crisis.

The success of this endeavor depends on multiple factors, with emphasis on the commitment of President Lula and his team to face unsustainable contradictions in the environmental area.

Among them, the main one is the government’s refusal to commit to the gradual elimination of oil, gas and coal and the discouragement with which it promotes the socio-environmentally fair expansion of renewable energies, such as solar and wind. This slow-moving energy transition contrasts with the positive results achieved in combating deforestation in the Amazon, after the disastrous years of the Bolsonaro period.

Eager to resume its role as climate influencer, Brazil has so far escaped the heaviest criticism for its rhetorical gymnastics, but not even the most experienced contortionist can sustain itself in such an unstable position for long. We will never achieve effective environmental leadership or a historic result at the Amazon COP if we do not strive to untangle the energy issue, internally and externally.

The announcement made on December 2 by President Lula himself, in the middle of COP28, that Brazil can join OPEC+ was already a shower of cold water on Brazil’s aspirations to show itself in its best form.

Joining this group, which brings together countries that are members of the OPEC oil cartel and other oil-producing nations that want to establish closer contact with this cartel, signals that Brazil has significant intentions of expanding its oil production and identifying itself as an oil nation, the opposite of what we should be doing.

But there is still time for a change of course that propels us forward on the global climate stage. Domestically, we must begin by abandoning the meaningless plans to join OPEC+ and reversing the trend of fossil fuel expansion.

The 2023 Production Gap Report, published by the UN in November, projects a 63% increase in oil production in Brazil, and a 124% increase in gas production, from 2022 to 2032. The government itself estimates that the country will become the fourth largest oil producer in the world in the coming years and continues to give ambiguous signals about the terrible idea of ​​exploring oil in Foz do Amazonas.

It is essential to ensure that no new fossil projects will move forward, otherwise we will fail terribly in the commitment we made in the context of the Paris Agreement (and which the government correctly reconfirmed this year), to cut 43% of our emissions by 2030, in relation to the 2005 level.

Brazil also needs to gradually eliminate the incredible subsidies it grants to fossil fuels and direct these resources towards measures to encourage renewable energy and energy efficiency.

A report published this year by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) indicates the potential of this measure: in 2022, Brazil allocated US$69 billion in implicit or explicit subsidies to the oil, gas and coal sectors.

Such advances in internal policies would strengthen Brazil’s credibility and increase its ability to demand from rich countries, which have a moral obligation to finance solutions to the climate crisis that they have historically created. But, in addition to long-term internal measures, the Brazilian delegation and President Lula himself can act now to increase the country’s climate role in foreign policy.

The first measure would be to speak out more clearly in favor of a mention, in the final text of COP28, about the gradual abandonment of all fossil fuels, not only coal, but also oil and gas.

This would put pressure on countries to substantially raise their national emissions reduction targets (NDCs) at the Belém COP, when all governments are expected to present an improved review of their targets.

It is also necessary to defend more incisively the adoption of an ambitious global target for the expansion of renewable energy. Brazil’s silence on this issue is surprising and weakens its leadership capacity.

Finally, we could advance conversations with our Amazonian neighbors so that, in the near future, the biome can be declared free from oil and gas extraction. Welcoming the world in the middle of the protected Amazon, in 2025, would be a sign of the seriousness of our commitments.

In the first week of COP28, Colombia has already shown that even oil producers can strive to leave the fossil fuel trap in the past. Our neighbors have joined the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty and become the largest economic country to date to commit to a fair and gradual exit from oil, gas and coal.

Why couldn’t we do the same, in a country with as much potential for renewable energy as Brazil?

From environmental NGOs to the Brazilian government itself, everyone agrees that the Belém COP has already started in Dubai, if not before. However, the historic and watershed COP of Belém, which Lula widely announced in Dubai, needs to actually begin.

So far, this successful conference in Brazil is just talk. It is up to Brazil to assume its role as climate champion now, if it wants to reap the benefits in 2025.