Datafolha: Tarcísio is approved by 44% and disapproved by 11% – 09/04/2023 – Power

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) has his administration in the state of São Paulo evaluated as excellent or good by 44% of the population and as regular by 39%, while 11% consider his performance bad or terrible, according to a Datafolha survey carried out after three-month term.

The survey also brings less comfortable results for the carioca who arrived at Palácio dos Bandeirantes with the support of then-president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), breaking the PSDB’s hegemony of almost 30 years in state command, and who is appointed as presidential for 2026.

A portion of 45% of Paulistas think that Tarcísio did less for the state than they expected. The group is larger than that of respondents who think he accomplished exactly what was predicted in that period (37%). For 12%, the Chief Executive exceeded expectations and did more than expected.

The institute interviewed 1,806 people aged 16 or over, in 65 municipalities in São Paulo. There were face-to-face interviews, last week, from Monday (3) to Wednesday (5). The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Tarcísio, who won the elections in the second round with 55.2% of the valid votes, against 44.7% of his opponent Fernando Haddad (PT), preserved his political capital in the interior, where he surpassed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s ally. In the metropolitan area of ​​the capital, it was Haddad who won.

According to Datafolha, approval in the interior reaches 47%, while in the metropolitan area it is 41%. The rates of those who see the government as regular are 36% and 42%, respectively. Disapproval was similar (12% in the capital and surroundings and 11% in the rest of the state).

The interior represents 54% of the total survey sample and the metropolitan region corresponds to 46%.

Seeking to establish himself as a representative of the moderate right, with efforts to distance himself from Bolsonarist extremism, Tarcísio reaches the 100th day of government this Monday (10).

During this period, he tried to balance himself with nods to the conservative base that elected him and avoided friction with the left, conquering a certain truce by opening dialogue with Lula and preaching a republican relationship.

Even among voters who claim to have voted in the second round for Haddad, Lula’s current finance minister, 33% recognize Tarcísio’s management as excellent or good (17% judge it as bad or terrible, and 45% see it as regular) .

Although half (53%) of those who voted for the PT think that the governor did less than expected for the state, 31% think that his gestures correspond to their expectations. Another 9% give in and say that the rival candidate in the 2022 election did more than they expected.

Optimism, naturally, has higher rates among those who preferred Bolsonaro’s former Minister of Infrastructure at the polls. In the group of sympathizers, the rate of those who regard the government as excellent/good is 60%. Another 31% consider it regular, and 6% classify it as bad/terrible.

Datafolha also compared Tarcísio’s performance with that of other governors who were the subject of the institute’s research after a similar term in office. The most recent was in 2011, on the work of Geraldo Alckmin, at the time in the PSDB and still far from migrating to the PSB and becoming Lula’s deputy.

With his 44% excellent/good, the current Bandeirantes holder has a lower level than Alckmin (48%), but higher than the 39% obtained by José Serra (PSDB) in 2007.

Tarcísio, with 11%, has a bad/terrible level similar to that of the list of predecessors, which also includes Mario Covas (PSDB). The already deceased toucan, who took over the state in 1995, scored 16% disapproval in the poll at the time. Serra also had 16%, and Alckmin registered 14%.

The 39% of the current governor’s regular evaluation is above the 29% of Alckmin and closer to the numbers of Serra (37%) and Covas (40%). In general, therefore, the rates of the first person elected since 1994 who is not a member of the PSDB demonstrate acceptance of the line of change without major ruptures.

The predecessor João Doria, who in 2022 resigned and was replaced by the then deputy Rodrigo Garcia, did not have his management scrutinized by Datafolha in the first quarter of 2019.

Far from Doria’s pyrotechnic style, Tarcísio maintained a measured posture in office. The moment of greatest visibility was perhaps during the aid to the north coast after the storms that left 65 dead, in partnership with Lula in the articulation of emergency measures.

With a vest and feet in the mud, dispatching from São Sebastião, the governor gained exposure that was diagnosed by aides and counselors as positive for his image.

Aside from verbal slips, such as the mistaken statement that autism in children can pass over time —which led to a retraction—, the Chief Executive avoided more harmful controversies.

He also circumvented crises that could wear him down, such as the proposal to remove cameras from police uniforms, an issue that pressured him in the campaign and went on the back burner in the face of evidence that the initiative is more beneficial than harmful.

In the analysis of the research by segments, Tarcísio’s approval rates stand out in strata that tend to support the governor and his political godfather. In the second round, Bolsonaro obtained in the state of São Paulo the same 55% of votes collected by his former assistant, which indicates a married vote.

With 44% excellent/good on average, the governor has 46% among men, 53% among people aged 45 or over, 56% among people with family income above ten minimum wages, 67% among businessmen and 86% among sympathizers of the PL, Bolsonaro’s party and which makes up his base in the state.

On the other hand, the failure rate —11% overall— is higher among young people aged 16 to 24 (16%), civil servants (17%), those who prefer the PT (18%) and self-declared blacks. (14%).

In the religious section, the evaluation percentages are balanced between Catholics (which are equivalent to 38% of the sample) and Evangelicals (29% of the universe surveyed).

The opinion that the government is great or good is shared by 50% of Catholics and 45% of Evangelicals. The classification as regular is made by 34% and 39%, respectively. And the feeling that it is bad or terrible affects the same proportion within the two strands: 10%.

Catholic, Tarcísio approached the evangelical public in the campaign, making the tour of temples and cults common to candidates in search of votes. Already in office, he gave prestige to the segment by appointing influential assistants among the brothers of faith, such as secretaries Sonaira Fernandes (Policies for Women), Gilberto Nascimento Jr. (Social Development) and Roberto de Lucena (Tourism).

In addition, the governor sanctioned a bill that transformed the March for Jesus, the biggest event on the continent’s evangelical calendar, into the state’s intangible cultural heritage.