Datafolha: Lula has stable approval, and disapproval rises – 09/14/2023 – Power

Eight months into his third term, President Lula (PT) has stable approval ratings, but has seen disapproval rise. 38% consider the PT member to be good or excellent, while 30% consider him to be average and 31%, bad or terrible.

The data was verified by the most recent research on the Lula 3 government carried out by Datafolha, which had taken the same pulse in the first three and five months of administration. 2,016 people were interviewed in 139 cities on Tuesday (12) and Wednesday (13). The margin of error is two points, plus or minus.

2% of those heard were unable to give their opinion. The only index that fluctuated above the margin of error in relation to last June’s survey, taking into account that equal numbers at the upper and lower limits do not constitute a tie, was disapproval, which was then 27%.

This is not, therefore, a spike in disapproval.

The most obvious positive news for the president is a certain maintenance of the situation, despite political instability, such as the long discussion about expanding the space of the center, a mainstay of predecessor Jair Bolsonaro (PL). After back and forth, Lula gave ministries to the conservative group, even without being sure that this would result in congressional support.

The discomfort in its political base due to the summary dismissal of Minister Ana Moser (Sports), for example, is not noticeable among the population as a whole. It is possible to argue that the extremely negative news about his antipode, Bolsonaro, could keep the flame of polarization burning, thus avoiding major swings in the electorate.

Another theme of relative constancy is the main thermometers of the economy when it comes to the popularity of government officials, inflation and unemployment, which follow a controlled path. These are much more concrete issues than a rise in the Gross Domestic Product, good news that is somewhat ethereal in popular perception.

The stratification of the PT member’s evaluation also remains the same, with his best approval rates among the always faithful Northeasterners (49%, among 26% of the Datafolha population sample), less educated (53%, 28% of those heard) and poorer (43%, 51% of respondents).

Repeating some polarization mantras, Lula is most rejected in the South region (39%, 14% of the electorate), more educated (39%, 22% of the sample), in a wealthier middle class (44% among those earning 5 to 10 minimum wages, 8% of those heard) and among evangelicals (41% in the group, which totals 28% of the population) — the PT member attempted a flirtation with the latter, more associated with Bolsonarism and more politically active, without success.

One segment draws attention, that of young people aged 16 to 24, who make up 17% of the sample. 43% of people think Lula is good, with lower rejection (23%) and approval (31%) rates. When evaluating government officials, the regular usually leans towards the negative, despite Planalto’s propaganda mischievously disseminating the data in addition to those who think the president is excellent or good.

From the most negative angle of the survey for the PT member, in addition to the increase in disapproval, there is confirmation of the wear and tear that brought his return to power, in an election won by 1.8 percentage points against Bolsonaro in the second round in 2022.

Lula has the greatest disapproval among government officials elected for a first term at this point in the mandate, except for Bolsonaro — in a difference compared to the previous two rounds, the PT member took off in terms of his predecessor.

In 1995, for example, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) only had a 15% disapproval rating at this point in the government. Lula 1, in 2003, only 10%, while Dilma Rousseff (PT) scored 11% in 2010. Bolsonaro was disapproved by 38% of voters in 2019, inaugurating a change in pattern that can be attributed to the radicalized turmoil of his government.

Another bad fact for Lula in the current survey is the expectations regarding his government. 43% think he will be great or good in the future, compared to 50% who thought this in March.

Those who predict regular management remain stable (26% to 27%), but those who believe it will get worse, with Lula being bad or terrible, rose from 21% to 28%. With current data, the PT member is equal to Bolsonaro’s levels at the same time in office.

The evaluation of its performance followed the general stability of the lift. They think Lula did more than expected, 17% (it was 18% in March). 53% already believe that the PT member did less than expected (51% before), while the same 25% from the previous round believe that he fulfilled expectations.

These are slightly better figures than those recorded by Bolsonaro at the same point in the clock that marks his mandate: 11%, 62% and 21%, respectively.