Datafolha: 68% reject Bolsonaro’s candidate in SP – 9/1/2023 – Power

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is, at this moment, the worst political godfather in the eyes of the electorate in the city of São Paulo. 68% of São Paulo citizens would not vote at all for a candidate nominated by him, according to a survey by Datafolha.

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) inherits part of this toxicity, with 46% of the 1,092 voters heard on Tuesday (29) and Wednesday (30) saying they would not support a name proposed by him. The margin of error is plus or minus three points.

In the opposite trench of national polarization, 37% of residents of the capital would not vote for a name of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), practically half of Bolsonaro’s rate.

This type of statement must be taken with caution. In April last year, for example, 62% of São Paulo said they would not vote for a Bolsonaro candidate. On October 30, they elected with 55% of the valid votes Tarcísio, former Minister of Infrastructure drawn to the dispute for the then president, who had the same vote in the state.

In that same April Datafolha poll, former governor João Doria (then in the PSDB) was even more toxic in the view of São Paulo: 66% said they would not vote for his nominee. In this case, however, the premise was confirmed, and his successor Rodrigo Garcia did not even make it to the second round, ending 27 years of Toucan rule in the state.

With that caveat in mind, the projection of support influences the São Paulo election of 2024, especially in relation to the center-right field, whose main representative so far is the mayor of the city, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), who scored 24% of intentions of votes in the same poll of the institute.

In it, 13% said they would vote for Bolsonaro for sure and 16%, maybe. Already 15% would go in the indication of Tarcísio, with 35% that would consider the hypothesis. Both politicians are in Nunes’ boat, or vice versa.

The mayor faced several difficulties to make his name viable among allies, but he achieved an improvement in the evaluation of his government and political successes, such as the end of the pre-candidacy of Bolsonarist Ricardo Salles (PL) and the rapprochement with Bolsonaro.

It is a complex game, given that the pendulum of the capital has been in the center-left in 2022, with Lula and Tarcísio’s rival, Fernando Haddad (PT), winning the race in the city. The current Datafolha poll suggests, with the rejection of Bolsonaro’s dedaço, the maintenance of a favorable scenario for the left – whose main name today is Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), nominally supported by the PT.

Nunes, in fact, did not go for the final embrace with Bolsonaro, who is experiencing an unprecedented judicial siege, not to mention the deterioration of his image due to the investigations into the January 8 coup d’état and the jewels pilfered from the Presidency’s collection.

At the same time, Nunes cannot alienate Bolsonarist voters, even more so with the state machine in his favor. The dilemma is shared by Tarcísio, who alternates cries of independence from his former boss and even a public crisis between them with moments of vows of love.

The difficulty is noticeable when declared voters of Nunes are asked their opinion on Bolsonaro’s support. Still quite a high 55% would rule out voting for a nominee, while 20% would definitely support and 24% maybe.

Rejection of Tarcísio’s nomination falls among the mayor’s voters, indicating a symbiosis. According to Datafolha, 30% reject a name from the governor, while 26% accept and 40% say they could agree.

On the left, 23% would definitely vote for Lula’s name, while 37% would perhaps do so. When the person questioned is someone who claims to vote for Boulos, the rates change: 36% would approve of Lula’s nomination, 48% would perhaps vote and only 13% would reject the idea outright.

Both municipal rivals face potential competition in their own fields. On the center-left, Congresswoman Tabata Amaral (PSB) showed strength with 11% of the voting intentions and a positive profile in the correlation between knowledge (only 50%) and rejection (23%).

On the right, also deputy Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil) technically tied with Tabata, with 8%, but his origin in the radicalism of the Free Brazil Movement guaranteed him the greatest rejection among all his rivals, 35%. Still, he is the least known (36%). The biggest problem is political: his party is closed with Nunes in São Paulo for the time being.