Datafolha: 52% see the risk of Brazil becoming communist – 7/1/2023 – Politics

Half of the electorate believes that Brazil can become a communist country, one of the main banners of Bolsonarism when it wants to attack the Lula government (PT). But most people do not see the positive legacy of the 1964 military dictatorship, a constant feature of right-wing discourse in the country.

The data, which help to qualify the cultural war between the main Brazilian political groups, were measured in a new survey by Datafolha. Held from June 12th to 14th, it surveyed 2,010 people aged over 16 in 112 municipalities, and has a margin of error of two points to more or less.

According to the institute, 52% of respondents agree with the statement about the risk of Brazil adopting a communist regime, something that has no basis in reality. Of these, 33% totally agree and 19% partially agree.

Not without surprise, belief rises to 73% among those who voted for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the 2022 second round, when the then president lost the election to Lula by 50.9% to 49.1% of the valid votes, the shortest distance since the 1985 redemocratization.

The former president always used such a scarecrow, even talking about it in his inauguration speech in 2019. The support of the PT, a party that claimed to be socialist in origin, and from Lula to leftist dictatorships in Latin America helps keep the ghost awake .

Overall, 42% reject the notion (30% totally, 12% in part), and 6% either don’t know, or didn’t want to answer. Also predictably, Lula voters are the ones who most discard the hypothesis, 61%, but no less than 32% of them find it credible. Believe in the communist scenario 42% of people with higher education, theoretically with more access to quality information.

On the contrary, however, one does not see a firm apology for the legacy of the dictatorship. For 47%, there were no benefits to the country with the military regime that lasted 21 years, and 35% of these strongly believe that (13%, not so much).

Already 36% agree that the dictatorship brought good things to the country, 15% of these totally (21%, partially). Among Bolsonaro voters, a convinced apologist for the military regime who never missed an opportunity to make public gestures in this regard, the index rises to 44%.

The survey brings counterintuitive data about the polarization of the country, in which 29% say they are root PT and 25% are Bolsonar supporters, according to the same Datafolha. When asked about the legacies of the PT (2003-2016) and Bolsonaro (2019-2022) governments, 33% of respondents said they saw good things in both periods.

The majority in this group voted for Bolsonaro (58%), while those who supported Lula are 33%. Among them, 29% approve of the president, 41% see him as regular and disapprove, 27%.

When unraveling the issue of support, 66% believe that the PT, represented in the two Lula governments, in the Dilma Rousseff administration (2011-2014) and in Dilma-2 (2015-2016, ended by impeachment), left benefits for Brazil.

This support is split between 36% who fully agree with the statement and 31% who think so in part – the numerical difference in the total concerns statistical rounding. Already 29% reject the idea of ​​the PT’s positive legacy.

The stratification of the data shows greater satisfaction in groups that usually vote for Lula’s party: northeasterners (75%) and the poorest (71%, in the largest population group in the survey, 48% of respondents), and lower among the refractory (59% among the wealthiest). Interestingly, opinions are divided between those who chose Bolsonaro in 2022: 49% think that the PT was bad, and 47% that it was good, showing the commonality of groups that supported the politicians on each occasion.

When Bolsonaro is evaluated, 57% see a positive legacy (31% strongly, 26% partial). As with petismo, the rates increase in its support base: 66% among evangelicals, 64% among residents of the Midwest and 88% among the minority segment of businessmen (2% of the sample). 39% reject Bolsonarist achievements (29% in total).

Datafolha also questioned the interviewees about a Bolsonarist accusation against the PT, that it is a party that does not respect the “Christian family”. For 51%, this is not true, while 39% agree with the statement — the rest do not know or did not want to answer.

In the former president’s support base, 53% of evangelicals, 29% of the sample, agree with the accusation. As for the majority, but more politically disorganized Catholics (47% of respondents), 57% disagree.

Finally, the research shows that politics is still permeated by religious factors. Confronted with the question “Politics and religious values ​​must always go together for Brazil to prosper”, 65% of respondents agree, while 32% disagree. The rates are similar between supporters of Lula and Bolsonaro, and rejection of the statement rises among more educated groups (51% for those with higher education).