Datafolha: 34% say they will never vote for Boulos, and 26% for Nunes – 03/11/2024 – Power

In the dispute for Mayor of São Paulo, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) is the most rejected pre-candidate: 34% say they will not vote for him in any way, while 26% of voters reject the current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (MDB).

The data comes from the Datafolha survey released this Monday (11), in which Boulos and Nunes lead isolated and tied in three different scenarios.

In terms of rejection, second place goes to Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil), who scores 32%, followed by Altino (PSTU), who has 27%.

Below the mayor, the least rejected are Tabata Amaral (PSB), with 19%, and Marina Helena (Novo), with 18%.

There are still 7% who say they reject them all, and another 2% do not reject any — 7% do not know.

Datafolha interviewed 1,090 voters in the capital of São Paulo on Thursday (7) and Friday (8). The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under protocol SP-08862/2024.

The new research is not directly comparable to the previous one, carried out in August 2023, as the competitors are not the same. Boulos, however, was the only one of the pre-candidates who saw his rejection fluctuate upwards within the margin of error.

In August, 29% said they would not vote for him at all. The leader in rejection was Kim, with 35%. Nunes scored the same 26% as now, while Tabata had 23%.

The Datafolha survey shows that Boulos has 30% voting intentions, technically tied with Nunes (29%). In the second platoon are Tabata (8%), Marina Helena (7%), Kim (4%) and Altino (2%). 14% are blank and null, and 6% don’t know.

Candidates’ rejection rates are related to their knowledge rate among the electorate and, in this sense, Boulos and Nunes have more difficulty in changing their image, as they are known by 83% and 85%, respectively, of those interviewed.

Lesser known, Marina Helena (46%) and Tabata (53%) are also less rejected. Kim (33%) and Altino (24%) have a lower level of knowledge, but are among those most rejected by voters.

The first round of the election will be on October 6th, and the campaign will officially begin in August.

Datafolha shows the consolidation of polarization between President Lula (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), represented in the municipal election by Boulos and Nunes.

The psolist, who has no experience in the Executive and is seen by a portion of the population as a left-wing radical due to the homeless invasions, is rejected by 63% of Bolsonarists and 15% of PT members.

The mayor, who is hit by accusations about his management and has his image associated with Bolsonaro, and consequently with denialism and coupism, has 11% rejection among Bolsonaro supporters and 39% among PT members.

Federal deputy and leader of the MTST (Homeless Workers Movement), Boulos is rejected more by men (37%) than by women (30%). The rate of those who do not vote for him varies to 29% among young people aged 16 to 24, 44% among students, 19% among housewives, 38% among evangelicals, 26% among blacks, 27% among those with primary education and 37 % among those earning more than 10 minimum wages.

Deputy of Bruno Covas (PSDB) who took over after the mayor’s death in 2021, Nunes is rejected more among those with higher education (41%) than among those with primary education (17%). The rate of those who do not vote for him ranges from 20% among young people aged 16 to 24, 32% among those aged between 35 and 44, 42% among those earning 5 to 10 minimum wages, 23% among housewives, 55% among public employees, 18% among evangelicals and 30% among whites.

Among the residents of the center, 46% reject the mayor, and 27% reject Boulos. In the south zone, 30% reject the deputy compared to 26% for the emedebista. In the east and north zones, 36% would not vote for Boulos against 24% for Nunes. In the west zone, the psolista has a 44% rejection rate and the mayor has 28%.