Datafolha: 32% say they are PT and 15% Bolsonarists in SP – 9/3/2023 – Politics

After an election in which, unlike the state, the capital of São Paulo gave victory to Lula (PT) to the Planalto Palace and Fernando Haddad (PT) to the Bandeirantes Palace, 32% of São Paulo citizens identify themselves as PT, while 15% declare themselves Bolsonarists .

This is what Datafolha found in a survey carried out in person on August 29 and 30 in the city of São Paulo, with 1,092 respondents aged 16 or over. The estimated margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The research institute measured the spectrum of polarization, starting from 1 (Bolsonarist) to 5 (PT), with 2 being a classification of more Bolsonarist than PT, 4, the opposite, and 3 being a point of neutrality between the two political camps .

In these spectrums, 26% said they were neutral, while 6% said they were closer to Bolsonarism and 13% closer to PTism.

Adding up the more Bolsonarist and PT specters, 21% are somehow aligned with the ideas of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), while 45% see more agreement with Lula’s party.

In relation to the national panorama, where 29% of voters say they are PT and 25% qualify as Bolsonarists, São Paulo has seen a greater tendency towards the party of the current President of the Republic and to the left.

This trend confirms the maintenance of the scenario seen in the 2022 election, when, in the São Paulo capital, Lula received 54% of the valid votes against Bolsonaro, and Haddad received 55% of the voters’ preference against Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).

In the count of the entire state, the result was the opposite – the former president won by 55% to 45% of Lula, and Tarcísio was elected governor with 55% of the votes, against 45% of the current Minister of Finance.

This feeling on the left is also related to the start of federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) at the forefront of the electoral polls for São Paulo City Hall in 2024 —he has 32% of the voting intentions, while Ricardo Nunes (MDB) figures with 24%.

Some movements, however, are similar between the two groups. The evaluation of the Nunes administration, for example, is mostly seen as regular among PT and Bolsonarists (48% in the first spectrum and 40% in the second).

The two sides of the ideological dispute are also together in stating that there is a need for change in the next municipal administration — 62% of Bolsonaro’s supporters and 84% of Lula’s supporters believe that the actions of the next mayor should be different from those of the current one.

Nunes is in the sphere of the center-right and flirts with Bolsonaro. On August 23, he praised the former president and explicitly said he wanted his support. “Just to make it clear, the issue of President Bolsonaro, I want the support of President Bolsonaro. And of Governor Tarcísio, of the PP, of the PL, I am not here to work on thesis, with futurology”, he said.

Boulos, on the other hand, benefits from an agreement with the PT held in 2022, giving up running for the Government of São Paulo to support Haddad’s candidacy, in exchange for support for a candidacy for the Executive of the São Paulo capital next year.