Datafolha: 30% say they are PT, and 22% are Bolsonarists – 05/04/2023 – Politics

The beginning of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) did not significantly change the map of Brazilian polarization. According to Datafolha, 30% of voters say they are PT, while 22% define themselves as Bolsonarists.

And there were 90 days of calm, having been marked by the spasm provoked by the coup acts of January 8, by the political and economic difficulties of the new administration and, now, the return of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to Brazil.

Even so, in a previous survey, carried out on December 19 and 20, 2022, 32% claimed to be PT, while 25% declared themselves to be Bolsonarists. As the margin of error for this and the current survey, carried out on March 29 and 30, is two percentage points, there was a negative oscillation in both cases, a little more pronounced among the former president’s supporters.

Taking into account the bipolar reality of the current political spectrum, Datafolha sought shades of gray on the scale. He asked his 2,028 respondents in 126 cities how they defined themselves, with 1 being a Bolsonarist, 2 being closer to Bolsonarism, 3 being neutral, 4 being more aligned with PT and 5 being PT.

In addition to the extremes already reported, the intermediate indices also suffered fluctuations. Those close to Bolsonarism increased from 7% to 9%, neutrals from 20% to 22% and philoptistas, from 9% to 10%. 5% remained without any preference in both surveys, as well as the 1% who did not know how to respond.

The map emulates the two groups’ traditional concepts of strongholds, reinforcing some political stereotypes.

According to Datafolha, people from the Northeast say they are more likely to support the PT (42%, in a group with 26% of the survey population sample), the less educated (40%, group with 30% of respondents), the poorest (39%, group 55% of the votes) and the oldest (37% among those over 60, 19% of the electorate).

Strong supporters of the former president are said to be those who earn 5 to 10 minimum wages (32%, in a group that makes up 7% of the electorate), residents of the South (28%, a group of 15% of the sample) and the North/Center -West (30%, group of 16%) and evangelicals (29%, contingent of 27% of respondents).

The PT was already a dominant force in the country, having been the main rival of the PSDB and later antagonized by the toucans during a duopoly that lasted from 1994 to 2014.

Afterwards, the tucanate at the federal level fell apart in the context of the implosion of traditional politics due to the revelations of corruption in the years of Operation Lava Jato, which paved the way for the rise of Bolsonaro —a politician from the margins of Congress who managed to sell himself as an icon of anti-politics and became president in the 2018 election.

The following cycle saw the return to political life of Lula, who left jail and was rehabilitated by the debacle of the sentences of the former judge and now senator Sergio Moro (União Brasil-PR), challenging and defeating Bolsonaro by a small margin of 1.8 point in the second round of 2022.

Since then, the former president has not recognized Lula’s victory directly and has encouraged coup supporters to question the election. He left the country for three months, during which time his supporters provoked Jan. 8, and returned last week.

Unheard of in the process, despite the positive oscillation of the neutrals, is the viability so far of alternatives to the two poles. In the pre-campaign and in the 2022 election race, much was said, but nothing was obtained by those who tried to occupy the so-called third way, from Luciano Huck to João Doria, passing by the actual competitors in the election Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB), relegated to less than 5% of the electorate.