Crisis is an aggressive move by the centrão to expand power – 05/31/2023 – Bruno Boghossian
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The crisis opened by the threat of overthrowing the Esplanada dos Ministérios was the most aggressive move by the centrão so far to expand its power under Lula. After showing strength in approving proposals contrary to the PT platform, Arthur Lira’s group (PP) signaled that it will only let the government breathe if it has more influence over the Executive.
The centrão smelled the blood in the water even before the inauguration. The distribution of ministries ignored Lira’s allies, divided numerous parties and left Lula far from a majority in Congress. Leaders aligned with the president of the Chamber worked to curb the adhesion of their countertops to the Planalto.
The group has spent the last few months exploring the political fragility of a government that didn’t seem to recognize the Congress it needed to deal with. The Planalto banked on the authority of ministers who were unable to turn votes around for their parties and took a while to organize an outflow of parliamentary amendments.
The approval of the fiscal framework, despite the government’s victory, caused the pressure to evolve into blackmail. The scoreboard showed a minority government and dependent on Lira’s influence in the plenary.
Planalto blinked for the first time when giving Lira influence over the amount that, under Jair Bolsonaro, was paid in the form of rapporteur amendments. He blinked for the second time, last week, when he offered Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil) the appointment of a new Minister of Tourism.
But the price of the centrão had already skyrocketed. The PP-Republicanos-União Brasil consortium sent the message to Planalto that it wants a weighty space in the government —including the Ministry of Health (with a hefty budget), Embratur, Banco do Nordeste and the Post Office.
Lula has few tools to face the impasse. Forcing a break would be political suicide. With the noose around its neck, the government is now debating how much power it is willing to give up for the chance to negotiate an agenda with a notably conservative Congress.
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