Crack in União Brasil may force Lula to change ministry

The threat by the Minister of Tourism, Daniela Carneiro, to leave União Brasil, accompanied by five other deputies from the party’s Rio de Janeiro bench in the Chamber, may force President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to carry out a ministerial reform.

The minister’s caption occupies three folders in the government. In addition to Tourism, Minister Juscelino Filho (União), accused of using public resources for private purposes, commands Communications and Waldez Goés, who despite being affiliated with the PDT, joined the União Brasil quota to head the National Integration portfolio, with the expectation of switching to the subtitle. The appointments are part of the complex political engineering put together by Lula to try to guarantee a minimum majority of votes in Congress, something that has not yet been confirmed in practice.

The mayor of Belford Roxo (RJ), Wagner dos Santos Carneiro, known as Waguinho, Daniela Carneiro’s husband and Lula’s ally, signed on Monday (10) a registration form for the Republicans, leaving União Brasil. At the time, he assumed the presidency of the Republicans in the state. According to CNN, Waguinho was on Tuesday night (11) at the Planalto Palace to give explanations. This episode was what made explicit a crisis that could have repercussions on the composition of the Esplanada dos Ministérios and on the allied base in Congress.

The minister, in addition to deputies Dani Cunha, Chiquinho Brazão, Juninho do Pneu, Marcos Soares and Ricardo Abrão, even resorted to the Electoral Justice to request disaffiliation for just cause, alleging harassment by the national command of União Brasil.

According to newspaper information The globe, the group was prevented from accessing tools to allocate resources from the party fund and from making appointments to provisional municipal commissions. The president of União Brasil, Luciano Bivar, rejected that he had denied funds for the campaigns of the parliamentarians and added that he will collect the mandates of the deputies who leave the party, as allowed by the rule of party loyalty. Bivar also warned that he will not relinquish the position of holder of the Ministry of Tourism to his party, which the nomination has been reserved.

Except during the election window, deputies can only change parties without losing their mandate in some specific circumstances, such as in the case of merger or incorporation of the party, the creation of a new party, violation of the party program or serious personal discrimination against the deputy. within the party,

The party born from the merger of the PSL (the party that elected Bolsonaro in 2018) and the DEM, of the former mayor of Salvador ACM Neto, secretary general of União Brasil, and governor Ronaldo Caiado (GO), has always had internal fights, but episodes of disagreement became more evident after Lula’s victory and the adhesion of his affiliates to his government.

The current crisis is led by deputy Luciano Bivar (PE), president of the party, and his deputy, lawyer Antonio Rueda. According to statements by members of the acronym to the press, the apex of the conflicts came from Rueda’s movement to remove Waguinho from the state direction of the Union and try to place his names in command. Behind the scenes, there are records that the relationship between Bivar and the leader of the party in the Chamber, Elmar Nascimento (BA), is not going well either.

In practice, the party’s rebellion in Rio de Janeiro could reduce its bench in the Chamber from 59 to 53 deputies, maintaining third place in plenary seats.

For analysts interviewed by People’s Gazette, the greater risk lies in the tendency for the party’s internal climate to deteriorate due to other regional conflicts, such as Pernambuco, São Paulo and Bahia. This can be reflected in the presence of União Brasil in the top echelon of government. Even the Minister of National Integration, Waldez Goés (MA), from the PDT, was nominated, according to Lula, by União Brasil.

The mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who is recovering from surgery, celebrated the split of União Brasil in a WhatsApp group, evaluating it as something favorable to the majority block of deputies that re-elected him. Lira sought to create a party, party bloc or federation by allying her PP to União Brasil, which was made unfeasible due to regional issues. He had already reinforced the chorus that Union deputies in ministries are the result of an agreement between Lula and party senators and not with House leaders.

On the PT side, the party movement was seen with good eyes by the national vice-president of the party, deputy Washington Quaquá (RJ), who sees the opportunity to attract the Republicans to the government. Close to Waguinho, he was one of the main articulators of support from the União Brasil directory for Lula’s campaign in 2022, guaranteeing the presence of Daniela Carneiro at the Esplanada dos Ministérios.

In its statute, União Brasil presents itself as a center-right party, resulting from the agreement signed between the two associations on October 6, 2021. In February 2022, the TSE approved the merger and granted registration to the new party, which at the time it had 81 members in the Chamber. As of February 2023, the party has 1,058,386 members and is the sixth largest in the country. Currently, the party has four governors, nine senators, 59 federal deputies, 100 state deputies and 5,546 councillors.

Division of the first echelon sought a majority in the Chamber

According to Eduardo Galvão, professor of government relations at Ibmec-DF, it is no coincidence that of the current 37 ministries, 10 were granted to the PT and 25 to other parties, in view of the need for governance. The acronyms covered represent exactly 51% of the seats in the Chamber.

“In our coalition presidentialism, the president without a parliamentary majority needs to negotiate a base of support and share management to protect himself against possible impeachment requests and guarantee the approval of important measures by the Legislative”, he stresses.

A study recently released by the consultancy BCW shows that the government base in Congress today has the signaled support of 70 deputies and 10 senators from the PL, PP and Republicans, parties in the coalition of candidate for re-election Jair Bolsonaro (PL). With that, Lula would have solid support from 140 deputies, occasional support from 206 and opposition from 167 deputies. In the Senate, the solid support is 15 senators, the conditional, 36, and the opposition has 30 senators.

The study points out, however, that the practical analysis of governance depends on the observation of votes in plenary, which has not yet been tested. Not even the provisional measures presented by the government were voted on, preventing a more precise assessment.