COP28: Understand what was negotiated and the open disputes – 12/07/2023 – Environment

What was an elephant in the room became the center of attention at COP28, the UN climate conference: the abandonment of fossil fuels, the main causes of the climate crisis.

Hosted by the United Arab Emirates, COP28 began with the accusation by socio-environmental movements that the head of the oil company Adnoc, Sultan al-Jaber, had a conflict of interest when assuming the presidency of the summit.

The indignation of the international community and the embarrassment it caused to the UN Climate Framework Convention (UNFCCC) resulted in an unexpected opening in negotiations to discuss the decline of fossil fuels, which entered the draft global assessment — main item under negotiation—since the first day of the conference.

The latest draft of the text, presented on Tuesday (5), maintains four language options on the abandonment or reduction of fossil fuels.

Brazil defends that the decline of fossil fuels occurs first and as a priority in developed nations and proposed that the text under negotiation reflects this difference in responsibilities, one of the principles of the convention.

Large emerging economies, mainly India and China, resist a text that determines the elimination of coal. Russia, on the other hand, is against the elimination of fossils and seeks to promote gas, a fossil fuel, as a low-carbon alternative, comparing it to oil and coal.

The most vulnerable countries, mainly the small island bloc, are talking about the complete elimination of fossil fuels.

The European Union and the United States have advocated the elimination of fossil fuels that are not offset (that is, those whose emissions cannot be reduced). For Americans, it is also important to highlight methane gas emissions — which, as it has a high greenhouse effect potential and a short duration in the atmosphere, can make a difference in the short term.

The first week of COP ended with 64 agenda items under negotiation, another 20 items still without text and only 5 already agreed, according to monitoring by the Carbon Brief portal.

This Friday (8), the countries’ environment ministers will take the stage to speak at the high-level dialogue, which debuts the ministerial level of negotiations — when the heads of the environment and climate portfolios help to unblock the political knots for possible COP decisions. The conference should reach a conclusion by the 12th.

Understand the status of negotiations on COP28’s main agendas below.

Global balance

The main document that should emerge from COP28, the global assessment is an assessment of countries’ efforts to implement the Paris Agreement. In addition to the diagnosis, it must provide recommendations for reviewing national climate goals.

The latest draft is 26 pages long. Most paragraphs still have at least two text options, maintaining the possibility of looser and more committed languages.

Towards new goals

The global assessment is especially relevant for Brazil, as the document’s recommendations should provide support for the presidency of COP30, which will take place in Brazil in 2025, precisely when countries must present new climate goals (the so-called NDCs, an acronym in English for nationally determined contributions) to the Paris Agreement.

Brazil seeks to establish the containment of global warming to around 1.5°C as a new horizon for the countries’ climate goals. The number appears in 14 paragraphs of the text.

The first of them says that countries express serious concern about the fact that 2023 will be the hottest year in history and about the acceleration of the impacts of climate change, emphasizing the need for urgent action to maintain the 1.5°C objective and address the climate crisis in this critical decade.

Abandonment of fossil fuels

The latest draft has four text options. The first points to “an orderly and fair gradual elimination of fossil fuels”. The second points to a gradual elimination of uncompensated fossil fuels by the middle of the century.

Another option cites the UN climate panel in favor of eliminating uncompensated coal, while the last alternative is limited to proposing the elimination of inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels — a dubious language that had already been used at COP26.

Renewables and efficiency

Still within the global balance, countries draft a commitment to triple renewable energy in the world by 2030, reaching an installed capacity of 11 thousand GW, and to double energy efficiency in the world in the same period, at an increase rate of 4% of efficiency per year.

In a political announcement outside the negotiations, 116 countries, including Brazil, have already promised to engage in the feat.

Loss and Damage Fund

Adopted on the first day of COP28, the loss and damage fund, created last year, gained operational definitions at the opening in Dubai. Management in the first four years will be carried out by the World Bank, but in accordance with the criteria decided by a council to be formed according to the principles of the UN Climate Framework Convention.

Starting with the donation of US$ 100 million from the hosts, the United Arab Emirates, the fund totals US$ 700 million raised in this first week of COP.

The value is still well below the size of the damage that the countries most vulnerable to climate change already accumulate. Estimates range from US$100 billion to US$580 billion in losses per year. Developing countries are asking for the fund to have an annual collection of US$100 billion.

Adaptation Fund

Created in 2021 to finance adaptation actions to the climate crisis, the fund made no progress in negotiations throughout the week.

The agenda is blocked by developing countries and the Arab group, who argue about the difference in responsibility they maintain in relation to developed nations. On the other hand, new pledges of donations from countries added US$166 million to the fund.

_{Reporter Ana Carolina Amaral traveled at the invitation of Avaaz, Instituto Arapyaú and Internews.}