COP28: Understand the size of the climate crisis in 5 points – 11/27/2023 – Environment

As the start of COP28, the UN (United Nations) climate conference, approaches, attention turns to Dubai, to follow the negotiations this year. The event starts this Thursday (30th) and, until December 12th, the United Arab Emirates will have the mission of delivering a satisfactory agreement even with accusations of conflict of interest weighing on the organization.

The summit takes place at a time that is considered critical to stopping the climate crisis, as it is necessary to drastically cut carbon emissions by 2030 in order to comply with the Paris Agreement.

However, several studies launched in recent weeks show that policies and measures to try to contain global warming to, preferably, 1.5°C and, at most, 2°C, are still far short of what is necessary.

Planet is heading towards more than 2.4°C of warming

One of the central points to be discussed at COP28 is an inventory of actions aimed at combating climate change (called “global stocktake”, or general balance) made by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, its acronym in English).

Published in September, the assessment is provided for in the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, and is the most comprehensive survey ever carried out on the progress of combating the climate crisis. The results indicate that, despite advances, humanity is heading towards an increase of 2.4°C to 2.6°C in the global average temperature.

The analysis will be discussed in Dubai and, based on it, countries must reevaluate their current efforts and make bolder commitments — which must be presented by 2025, at COP30, which should take place in Brazil, in Belém.

Another study cites an even worse scenario for the future. The annual report on the Emissions Gap, from UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), points out that the world will experience 2.5°C to 2.9°C of warming in relation to pre-industrial indices if governments do not accelerate emissions cuts.

The document also contains figures from the World Meteorological Organization that indicate that greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.2% between 2021 and 2022, reaching a record equivalent to 57.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide.

Unbridled production of fossil fuels

Almost 90% of global emissions come from fossil fuels. Despite this, government plans around the world indicate that oil, gas and coal production in 2030 should be double what would be allowed to comply with the Paris Agreement.

According to the Production Gap Report, prepared by UNEP in partnership with other institutions, countries must produce 110% more fossils at the end of the decade than would be necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C and 69% more than it would be consistent with a planet 2°C hotter.

Brazil, despite having deforestation as the main driver of emissions, is today eighth in the world in oil production, 27th in gas production and 29th in coal and helps to push this trend upwards. According to the document, the Brazilian energy plan foresees that oil production will grow by 63%, and gas production, by 124% between 2022 and 2032.

Sale of electric cars is the only indicator within the target

Analyzing economic sectors in greater detail makes it easier to understand why future forecasts are so pessimistic.

A study conducted by the NGO WRI (World Resources Institute), among other institutions, evaluated 42 indicators according to what would be necessary to contain global warming to 1.5°C. The conclusion was that only one of them is on track to reach its target for 2030: the percentage of electric vehicles in car sales.

Six indicators are moving in the right direction, at a promising but insufficient speed. Among them are reforestation, the percentage of clean electrical energy sources and the productivity of beef and sheep.

Another 24 indicators are heading in the right direction, but well below the required pace. Two examples are the reduction in deforestation, which would need to be four times faster, and investments in low-carbon energy sources in relation to fossil fuel production, which should be more than ten times faster.

There are still six indicators that are going in completely the wrong direction. Among other points, it is necessary to completely reverse the course of actions to control food waste, public financing for the production of oil, coal and gas and the sale of electric buses.

Five indicators have insufficient data.

The hottest year in history

With monthly records being broken since June, it is virtually certain that 2023 will be the hottest year in 125,000 years. The warning was given by scientists from the European climate observatory Copernicus and the American agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).

The extreme heat is the result of climate change combined with the occurrence of El Niño, which warms surface waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and raises temperatures in different parts of the planet. This year, the record for the hottest month ever recorded was broken, in July.

Furthermore, on November 17, for the first time, the variation in the global average temperature was above 2°C compared to levels recorded before the Industrial Revolution (1850-1900).

On that day, the temperature variation (or temperature anomaly, in scientific jargon) was 2.07°C above the pre-industrial average — numbers that remained high on the 18th, when the index was 2.06°C.

Even though the temporary exceeding of 2°C is symbolic and serves as a warning, the records do not mean that the Paris Agreement has already been broken. For it to be considered that the world is 2°C warmer, indices like this need to be recorded frequently.

Lack of money for climate adaptation

Even with so many warnings and extreme weather events, funding for climate adaptation in developing countries fell by 15% in 2021. The data is from another recent UNEP report.

According to the entity, the number shows that the fight against the impacts of the climate crisis is stagnant and that the financing gap is getting worse.

The amounts needed for adaptation are in the range between US$215 billion and US$387 billion annually — but the amounts collected are far below that, with the deficit being between US$194 billion and US$366 billion. The document concludes that the funds needed for emerging countries are 10 to 18 times greater than financial flows.

In 2009, developed countries committed to providing $100 billion a year in climate finance to poorer nations by 2020, but the promise has yet to be fulfilled.

According to estimates, every billion dollars spent, for example, combating coastal flooding, would help prevent $14 billion in economic damage.