COP28 postpones conclusion in search of solution for fossils – 12/12/2023 – Environment

We are between the lazy and the desperate. This is how a negotiator interviewed by the Sheet the situation of extreme antagonism between nations whose economies depend on oil revenues and the countries most vulnerable to climate change, especially small islands. The impasse prevents the conclusion of COP28, the UN (United Nations) climate conference, which was scheduled to end this Tuesday (12).

Negotiations continue into the night and there is no end date for the conference. The COP28 presidency intends to present a new draft of the final summit agreement at 6am Dubai local time (11pm Brasília time).

If the new text is published, countries must take their positions in a new plenary session starting at 9:30 am local time. However, the predictions are subject to repeated postponements, as the plenary should only begin if the nations signal satisfaction with the draft. Conference support services, such as food and transportation for participants, were extended until Friday (14).

Throughout Tuesday (12), the COP presidency held informal consultations with the countries, which did not meet again in plenary. In rooms with restricted access and no records, negotiations go through a dark phase and observers have difficulty following and influencing the agenda.

The latest draft of the COP’s main document, presented on Monday night (11), generated furious reactions for removing the forecast for the gradual elimination of fossil fuels — which became the conference’s main demand.

The elimination of fossils was in the drafts negotiated throughout the first week of the conference and disappeared at the weekend, shortly after OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) sent a letter to the members of its expanded group, OPEC+, suggesting that did not accept mentions of the reduction of fossil fuels, but, instead, proposed the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The difference allows the sector to continue exploring and burning fossil fuels, appealing for solutions to offset the carbon emitted. According to reports from the UN climate panel and the International Energy Agency, the math doesn’t add up. To contain global warming to up to 1.5ºC, it would be necessary to avoid new investments in coal, oil and gas sources.

During informal consultations over the last weekend, negotiators from Saudi Arabia and the United States took the OPEC proposal forward and the new draft of the document began to talk about the need to reduce emissions, leaving it only as a suggestion, for countries that whatever they wanted, the options for reducing fossil fuels.

At a meeting of heads of delegations in the early hours of Monday (11) to Tuesday (12), Saudi Arabia practically assumed authorship of the paragraph. Speaking on behalf of the Arab bloc, the Saudi representative stated that science does not project any elimination of fossils and that there is no “zero fossils” in a world of 1.5ºC, according to the record of the meeting’s speeches that circulated among participants of the conference.

Brazil defended stronger language for the commitment on fossil fuels and also called for the inclusion of a reference to racial equity, reflecting a demand from Brazilian social movements present at the COP.

Even countries that traditionally support language favorable to the oil sector at COPs, such as Australia, called for a firmer commitment. The head of the Australian delegation criticized the term “could include”, which precedes the set of suggestions on fossil reduction, calling for a verb such as “should”, which expresses a firmer commitment to the agenda.

COP28 did not have a mandate to decide on fossil fuels. The agenda is the biggest taboo in climate negotiations since the creation of the UN Climate Framework Convention in 1992. The reduction of fossil fuels, which emit 75% of the gases causing the climate crisis, has only begun to appear in decisions at Climate COPs two years ago, at the Scottish COP.

It was pressure from public opinion around the world that placed the topic on the COP28 agenda, in reaction to the choice of the president of the oil company Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber, to head this year’s conference.

According to negotiators, Al Jaber has prioritized the topic, as he understands that it will define the public perception of the success of the conference.

The reduction or elimination of fossil fuels is addressed in just one article of the COP’s main document, the global assessment — a mandatory delivery of this edition of the conference, according to the implementation calendar of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015.

As the balance assesses global efforts on the climate agenda and creates recommendations on how countries should review their goals, the forecast of reducing or eliminating fossil fuels is timely to guide new national commitments, which must be delivered by 2025.

For the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, the indicators that appear in the global assessment will be used to conduct the review of countries’ climate goals, even if they are not defined as mandatory trajectories. As Brazil will be responsible for conducting the review process until COP30, scheduled to take place in Belém (PA), Marina proposed the creation of a working group to deepen the proposals for abandoning fossil energy.

_{Reporter Ana Carolina Amaral traveled at the invitation of Avaaz, Instituto Arapyaú and Internews.}