Centrão negotiates parallel basis for Lula in Congress – 02/22/2023 – Politics

The assembly by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) of a support base in Congress involves negotiation with a group of parliamentarians from parties that are not formally allied, especially the centrão —PL, PP and Republicans, a triad that gave political support to Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Government articulators, leaders and members of these parties —in addition to smaller ones, such as Podemos— speak of a potential pro-Lula parallel group of around 70 deputies and 10 senators, which would be decisive for important votes in Congress.

The test of adhesions to the government is symbolized by Bolsonaro’s own party, the PL, which is the largest in the Chamber (99 out of 513 deputies) and the second in the Senate (12 out of 81).

Despite hosting some of the main exponents of Bolsonarism, the acronym must have significant pro-government dissent in both Houses.

The national president of the party, Valdemar Costa Neto, has stated in conversations with parliamentarians that he estimates 20 to 30 party deputies inclined to ally with the government, especially the oldest in the party, who did not enter politics through Bolsonarism. .

Valdemar has made a joke in these conversations, that the PL is, as its name implies, a “liberal” party, which is understood as a sign that there will be no punishments.

Dilma Rousseff’s former transport minister, for example, deputy Antonio Carlos Rodrigues (PL-SP) was elected coordinator of the São Paulo bench in the Chamber with the support of the PT, which saw at the time an opportunity to widen the division in the party between the ” root centrão” and “root Bolsonarism”.

Rodrigues repeats a mantra said openly and privately by almost all parliamentarians who today are not formally allied with the government, but who are trying to join.

“As a Brazilian, I root for success [do governo]. There’s no point rooting against my country. The election is over, we have to hope for success. I will follow party guidelines, but whatever is good for Brazil, I will not vote against it.”

Rodrigues even says that he will defend at the meeting of PL congressmen with Valdemar, after Carnival, a deliberation contrary to one of the main flags of radical Bolsonarism, the attack on the STF (Federal Supreme Court).

“I am not a radical opposition, and I am against any attitude against the Judiciary. Judicial decision is respected. I will propose it on the agenda [da reunião] a decision to respect the Judiciary.”

Another older member of the PL, Tiririca (SP) says it is too early to assess the Lula government, but claims that he is a defender of “democracy and the will of the Brazilian people”. Any proposal that is in the interest of the population and for the good of Brazil will have his support, he says.

In the Senate, Romário (PL-RJ) is already treated by PT members and even by his supporters as a virtually certain vote in favor of the government’s agenda. There is even an expectation that he will leave his caption soon – the senator did not want to comment on the matter.

Former deputy leader of the Bolsonaro government, Senator Carlos Viana (MG) switched from the PL to Podemos, but claims to be within the opposition wing to Lula. This will not prevent him from voting and defending the current government’s guidelines, he says.

“I was deputy leader [do governo Bolsonaro] because several proposals of the economy [do Paulo Guedes] were the same as mine, a liberal policy, privatizations. But certain points of Bolsonarism, such as the issue of vaccines, I never shared. My audience knows that I stand for the public interest regardless of government,” he says.

“The most radical Bolsonarist base has no way, they want opposition for opposition, and I will not do that. We need an intelligent opposition that defends the future of the country”, he adds.

Privately, senators say that, depending on the agenda, up to 25 of the 32 names that currently make up the opposition group to Lula can vote along with the government, and the most cited example is that of tax reform.

The text, one of the main economic flags of the PT and which has been articulated by Fernando Haddad (Finance) and his team along with the command of Congress, can be voted on in the first semester.

The new fiscal anchor, another Lula promise for the area, or changes in the law of state-owned companies bring more divergences.

“The tax reform, although we have a specific divergence, in essence is an agenda of convergence, as well as the new Bolsa Família”, says Alessandro Vieira (PSDB-SE), who declares himself as independent.

“There is a group of 20 or a little more parliamentarians who are defining, leading the approval or not of issues, especially PECs. It was like that in the previous government, which had a more primary political management. This government is more skillful in that sense”, completed.

Lula was elected in the midst of an attempt to form a broad political union with the aim of isolating Bolsonarism.

Its problems in Congress, however, begin with the fact that the left has only elected about 25% of the seats in the House and Senate.

With that, Lula initially distributed nine ministries to PSD, MDB and União Brasil, center and right-wing parties that raised Lula’s formal base —if you count the adhesion of União Brasil, still an unknown quantity— to 282 of the 513 seats of the House and 52 of the 81 of the Senate.

This is not enough for a cruise in Congress because, counting the dissidents in the three center and right-wing parties, these numbers will still be far from the necessary for approval of amendments to the Constitution (which require a minimum support of 60% of parliamentarians: 308 in the House and 49 in the Senate).

The União Brasil, for example, is still experiencing an atmosphere of conflict between Lulistas and anti-Lulistas.

For this reason, the PT and the government are looking for the centrão, which comprises about a third of the seats in the Chamber and a little less in the Senate, in retail, with the expectation that later on they will also have the formal support of these parties.

As always occurs in these cases, the main negotiation mechanisms are relevant positions in the federal machine and budget funds for the deputies’ electoral strongholds, in addition to other claims.

The PP of Arthur Lira (AL), mayor, is divided (the acronym has 49 seats in the Chamber and 6 senators) and awaits clearer signs from the Planalto Palace.

Lira, who was re-elected to head the Chamber, will be a crucial factor in this equation. From a great supporter of the Bolsonaro administration, the parliamentarian migrated quickly after the election to the PT orbit. He has supported the government at the beginning of this legislature and received signs of retribution.

Among them, the support of the PT and the government for his re-election and the release of part of the ministries budget so that he can direct the amendments of novice deputies that helped to re-elect him.

One of the examples of the firepower of the president of the Chamber occurred in the vote still in the transition of the amendment to the Constitution that gave budgetary breath to the new government. Lira commanded the approval of the proposal and secured the support of almost 70% of the PP bench.

The Republicans (42 seats) also bring together just over 10 deputies who tend to vote with the government and press for membership, especially those from the Northeast.

In Podemos (17 deputies after the incorporation of the PSC, in addition to 7 senators), in addition to the case of Carlos Viana in the Senate, there is a pro-government inclination on the part of the deputies.

The leader of the bench in the Chamber, Fábio Macedo (MA), has been going to base meetings with Lula. Another deputy, Igor Timo (Podemos-MG), was formally appointed as one of the deputy leaders of the government.

The first real tests of Lula’s bench in Congress should take place after Carnival.

Among others, parliamentarians point out as symbolic in this sense (that of measuring the strength of the government base and the opposition) the provisional measure that changes the rules of the CARF (Administration Council of Tax Resources). The government has already agreed to make its original proposal more flexible, but there is still a risk of defeat.