Centrão evaluates 2026 without Bolsonaro and accelerates Tarcísio plan – 05/18/2023 – Bruno Boghossian

In politics, even assumptions are often treated with caution. An unpopular president does not publicly admit that he is at risk of impeachment. An uncompetitive candidate avoids speculation about the support he will give in the second round, under penalty of acknowledging defeat in advance.

Jair Bolsonaro’s allies have left the hypothesis phase behind when it comes to the former president’s ineligibility. In the same week, Valdemar Costa Neto, Ciro Nogueira and Flávio Bolsonaro spoke of the scenario with aplomb and laid cards on the table about succession on the right.

The three seemed to have agreed on the speech. At GloboNews, Valdemar protested for a few seconds against a possible veto of Bolsonaro in the election, but soon listed names that could replace him in the ballot box. Nogueira followed the same script in an interview with Valor Econômico, as well as Flávio in the newspaper O Globo.

The right does the math for a 2026 without Jair Bolsonaro as a candidate because it heard the sound coming out of the TSE. Even though they prepare a shouting match against what they consider an injustice, the trio tries to send the message that the right does not depend on the former president at the ballot box and that the ground is ready for a successor.

Perhaps the most relevant sign of the interviews was the exposure of party movements for a presidential candidacy of Tarcísio de Freitas. Valdemar released that the governor, now affiliated with the Republicans, would have to “leave with 22”, the number of the PL. Ciro Nogueira even set up a coalition for Tarcísio.

The Bolsonarist centrão is more interested in the governor than in his former boss. Valdemar acknowledged that Bolsonaro’s extremism takes away votes, and Nogueira admitted that Tarcísio would attract more parties than the ex-president’s ticket.

The idea is to add Bolsonaro’s nucleus (PL, PP and Republicans) to the PSD (Tarcísio’s ally) and the MDB (which wants the group’s support in São Paulo). In practice, therefore, the candidacy could threaten the stability of Lula’s coalition until 2026.

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