Central Bank’s ‘GDP preview’ indicates 0.6% growth in the economy in January

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This was the fifth consecutive month of growth in the level of activity. In the 12 months up to January, the IBC-Br grew by 2.47%. ‘GDP preview’ from the Central Bank indicates 0.6% growth in the economy in January The Economic Activity Index (IBC-BR) from the Central Bank of Brazil, considered the “preview” of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), recorded expansion 0.6% in January compared to the previous month, the institution reported this Monday (18). The result was calculated after seasonal adjustment – ​​a type of “compensation” to compare different periods. According to data from the BC, this was the fifth consecutive month of growth in the level of activity. In comparison with January last year, the Central Bank reported, the activity level indicator registered growth of 3.45%. In the 12 months up to January, it showed growth of 2.47%. In this case, the index was calculated without seasonal adjustment. GDP and IBC-Br GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country and serves to measure the evolution of the economy. If GDP grows, it means that the economy is doing well and producing more. If GDP falls, it means the economy is shrinking. In other words, consumption and total investment is lower. However, a rise in GDP does not always equate to social well-being. For this year, the financial market estimates an increase of 1.78% for GDP – with a deceleration compared to last year’s result (+2.9%). For 2025, the expectation is for growth of 2%. The BC’s IBC-Br is an index created to try to anticipate the GDP result, but the results did not always show proximity to the official data released by the IBGE. The calculation of GDP, released by IBGE, and IBC-Br is slightly different – ​​the BC indicator incorporates estimates for agriculture, industry and the services sector, in addition to taxes, but does not consider the demand side (incorporated in the IBGE GDP calculation). The IBC-Br is one of the tools used by the BC to define the country’s basic interest rate. With lower economic growth, for example, theoretically there would be less inflationary pressure. At the end of January, the rate was reduced to 11.25% per year for the fifth time in a row.

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