Central bank sect demands honor – 06/22/2023 – Reinaldo Azevedo

Nobody sabotages the autonomy of the Central Bank more than the current members of the Monetary Policy Committee. The maintenance of the Selic rate at 13.75% was taken for granted —after all, the way of being of autonomism includes, how is it?, not going against expectations—, but even the fundamentalists of the sect of Devotos dos Santos of Times expected the prophets to hint at the possibility of an August drop. Nothing! No clue. Even people who oblige themselves to attend worship said privately that interest rates could drop now. As readers know, I think this should have happened a long time ago.

“You are ignorant of economics; you don’t know anything!” Hmmmm… And who proposes to teach me? In case you don’t know, one thing at least is certain: I don’t make mistakes as a bloodhound for specialists in theology itself. Agree, all the predictions of experts (always with “x”) and fanatics were wrong. And a mistake does not become a success because it is riddled with jargon, specific vocabulary and unshakable certainties. Often, it is not lack of conviction that produces disasters, but excess – on the assumption that there is more than argent interest.

It’s a good thing these people don’t fight a war, don’t build buildings, don’t open abdomens, don’t make baby food or take care of logistics. Imagine the breakdowns. The brave prophesied about inflation, growth, exchange rate, deficit, debt and whatever else you want. They got everything wrong. Caught, they send the numbers to hell if they contradict their guesses. But beware of questioning your predictions! You can be accused of being a heretic or an apostate. There is in these environments a true climate of religious terror. Citing Standard & Poor’s, which saw what natives didn’t, could render the Tribunal of the Holy Office of Monetarism Gaga.

Lula’s reaction was mild. If the stick were to come down, 300-year interest rates could rise by 0.1%, and it would certainly be blamed for, as it were, the deterioration of end-of-the-world expectations. After all, it is convenient not to contradict another doxa of certain circles: everything bad that happens in the Brazilian economy is the fault of the PT and “these people”, and the good, if any, is due to external factors. Even the thesis that he is “lucky” has been resurrected. I believe that the time has come for the representative to share this burden with Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), respective presidents of the Chamber and the Senate — the House to which the said monetary authority owes a little bit of satisfaction .

Additionally, an effort is needed to make the impact in 12 months of each percentage point of the rate reach the Gentiles: R$ 38 billion. If everything went out of order, it would be a cost to pay for mismanagement. If, however, the fundamentals — without exception — justify the fall and if it does not come, with signs that it will not come on a plausible horizon, then it is necessary to dialogue with those who pay the bill. Furthermore, ask yourself: will the business community watch, in obsequious silence, the absurdity of real interest rates approaching 9%? And woe to anyone who dares to speak of changing the inflation targeting system, putting the country in line, for example, with the 10 largest economies in the world! In this area, the braves are more nativist than John Dutton in Montana’s government – I mean “Yellowstone”.

I always find interesting the moments when the hierarchs lead the sects they command to theological collapse, demanding from the believers an additional exercise of devotion. Those in the central bank have already given everything to the cause. Only honor is missing. Will they take one more step or will they choose “detox” and “rehab”? I think I already know…

PS: Cristiano Zanin did very well. The 58 votes indicate that a considerable part came from parliamentarians who are in opposition parties. There is unmistakable merit to the Saturday meeting, but it seems clear that the government is starting to get things right in Congress. Agree: those who have neither leadership nor an axis, and the inquiries revealed it, are the oppositionists. With the sensible ones, including in the PL, only one crowd makes sense: due to the ineligibility of Bolsonaro, the one who had found graphene in the testicles and ovaries of vaccinated people and then backed down. BC is, at the moment, the only and last hope of the right.

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