Census abstention was higher in Bolsonarist cities – 06/30/2023 – Politics

The electoral cities of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) responded less to the Census than the electoral cities of President Lula (PT). The average non-response rate is 2.3% in municipalities where Bolsonaro won in the second round, against 1.4% in those that elected the PT.

In 11 of 13 states that were able to have cities compared equivalently, the The average abstention rate was higher in Bolsonarist cities, according to an analysis by Sheet.

Overall, the rate of non-response to census takers was 4.23% in the country, with higher abstention in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The municipalities with the highest refusal rate are São Paulo and Paraná.

Absolutely, 2.2 million households in states that elected the former president did not respond to the Census, against 829 thousand households in states that voted for the PT.

Among Bolsonaro’s electoral cities with high rates of abstention in households are Santa Isabel (SP), 17.3%, Santana de Parnaíba (SP), 16.7%, Arujá (SP), 15%, Ribeirão Preto (SP), 14.3%, Tibagi (PR), 10.8%, and Cocalinho (MT), 9.1%.

Considering states with at least ten cities that elected Lula, ten cities that elected Bolsonaro and that can be compared because they have similar municipal income, the average abstention was higher in Bolsonarist municipalities in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Pará, Goiás , Santa Catarina, Tocantins, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Alagoas and Rio Grande do Sul, which almost tied.

Only in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo did the municipalities that voted for Lula register higher abstention rates.

The largest portion of the population that did not respond to the 2022 Census was concentrated in areas with higher income, according to the interim president of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Cimar Azeredo, in an interview on Wednesday (28). One of the hypotheses is that there is a thought among wealthier classes that “the census does not matter”.

In order not to consider only the presidential vote, the article compared cities in the same state (therefore with similar realities), which have the same income, but which voted for different candidates in 2022.

From this clipping, it was possible to identify that there is a tendency for Bolsonarist municipalities to respond less to census takers even in poorer locations. It is not possible, based on these data, to know if there was a specific motivation or if people were just not found at home.

In the same state, like Goiás, for example, it is possible to verify that Bolsonarist cities with different incomes had a higher non-response average than compared to cities that voted for the PT, in the same parameter.

The analysis considered 13 states because that is the total of federal units that have at least ten cities that elected Lula and Bolsonaro and have the same level of economic development. The report measured the wealth of a municipality by the income component of the HDI (Municipal Human Development Index).

The Census collection was marked by delays amid budget restrictions for the IBGE in the Bolsonaro government. Census workers complained about delays in payments and amounts paid lower than expected, which led to professionals leaving and even threats of strikes on the part of the category.

In October, the Sheet showed that IBGE professionals also complained about fake news about the survey in the middle of the electoral race. When disclosing Census data on Monday (26), Cimar Azeredo also pointed out that the Census began in the midst of an “extremely polarized election”, which hampered data collection by census takers.

He did not mention the name of the former representative, saying that the institute was criticized by the “President of the Republic”, “especially in relation to the unemployment rate”. “So it somehow has an impact.”