Caiado’s candidacy for president has obstacles to overcome

The first name to postulate the intention of running for President in 2026, the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, will have to face a series of obstacles to carry out his opposition candidacy, including within his own party, União Brasil.

To win the position of the most viable right-wing option in the election, to be defined by consensus, and still reach the center, Caiado has sought the support of Jair Bolsonaro (PL). He hopes to inherit from the former president the position of main opponent of the left, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). His presence as one of the four governors at the political event called by the former president on Avenida Paulista, last Sunday (25), was yet another gesture aimed at this purpose.

Parallel to this mission, Caiado has positioned himself as a conservative politician, but who does not give up dialogue with other political forces, including antagonistic ones. He has argued that the population is “tired of the polarization” that dominated the last elections, and that it is no longer possible to “govern with extremes”.

His speech as a potential candidate has been supported by the results of his state administration, with emphasis on the economic growth of Goiás, driven by the countryside, the reduction of poverty and, above all, the fight against crime.

Last year, the state Public Security Secretariat promoted information from the Violence Atlas, prepared by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), that Goiás reduced the homicide rate by 35% between 2018 and 2021.

The governor perceives public security as one of the federal government’s weakest points and one of the population’s main concerns. Therefore, he has been proposing a national crusade against organized crime, especially drug trafficking, positioning himself as a debater and formulator of solutions anchored in more vigorous support for police agents.

He starts from the assessment that factions have co-opted a wide spectrum of public power and the media, demanding a more direct and courageous confrontation of the issue. In this sense, he expressed his opinion against the provisional release of prisoners (saidinhas) and the implementation of cameras on police uniforms.

Agribusiness begins to help Caiado nationalize its name

As a ruralist leader, Caiado has also explored his connection with agribusiness, the dominant economic sector in his state and which has been in conflict with the Planalto. He hopes to count on the support of large rural producers for a future presidential campaign.

As a preview of this, it obtained from the National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) the availability of meeting spaces in Brasília and São Paulo, which should be repeated in other states, through sector federations.

Customs agenda generates resistance from Bolsonaro followers

Raising the flags of the countryside and public security, it remains for the governor to seek the support of conservative parties and parliamentary blocs, especially those affiliated with the PL, advancing the so-called customs agenda.

This is the most explicit point of resistance from Bolsonaro’s followers to Caiado, who made a point of remembering in recent days the disagreement between the governor and the former president in relation to facing the Covid-19 health crisis. Right at the beginning of the pandemic, in March 2020, the governor of Goiás said that Bolsonaro was “irresponsible” for saying that the respiratory disease was a “little flu”.

Caiado tries to break this resistance. In a gesture of rapprochement with the evangelical public’s agenda, the governor inaugurated a forest in Goiânia with more than a thousand trees planted in memory of the victims of Hamas in Israel.

For the governor of Goiás and his closest followers, these differences with Bolsonaro have been overcome, considering the partnerships that the two established in the following years, including the support of the governor re-elected in the first round for the re-election of the former president.

Not by chance, Caiado endorsed the appeal that Bolsonaro made on Avenida Paulista in favor of the approval of an amnesty project for defendants convicted by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) investigation related to the acts of January 8th.

Caiado hopes that the experience will be a relevant credential to become a consensus name, as demonstrated in an interview in which he refuted Zema’s speech in favor of a single right-wing candidacy. He considered the Minas Gerais governor’s proposal to unite around a single right-wing candidate as soon as possible as “naive” and “nonsense”, understanding that this strategy ignores the limitations of the extreme poles of politics and the dynamics of party negotiations.

Caiado’s first battle will be to unify his party against Lula

Caiado’s first and biggest challenge on his path to the Planalto lies, however, in his own party, União Brasil, which is part of Lula’s team of ministers and parliamentary support base.

The governor has shown that he wants to overcome as soon as possible the division between his supporters – between those who defend the re-election of the current head of the Executive and those who want their own path. In the series of interviews that Caiado has been giving since the end of 2023, his intention to share his dream of protagonism with his supporters became clear.

In this sense, his first battle to unite União Brasil was addressed to the national convention, to choose the new president, in place of deputy Luciano Bivar (PE), in open war with other chiefs.

Due to the internal split, the meeting that was scheduled for this Thursday (29), ended up being postponed, in a maneuver by Bivar. The leadership ignored it and elected Antônio de Rueda to lead the party. Caiado is one of the organizers of this change in party command, together with the former mayor of Salvador ACM Neto, now elected vice-president.

The governor has also been moving in favor of understandings even with the ministers of União Brasil Juscelino Filho (Communications) and Celso Sabino (Tourism), having already met with the latter to discuss the presidential election. Sabino had refuted the Goiás governor’s thesis in the press, but Juscelino, although he also does not support it, admits that the party may not endorse Lula in 2026.

Caiado’s determination to become a candidate in 2026 is following a structured schedule and planning with defined goals. This personal attack of his dates back to 1989, when he was the youngest presidential candidate in the first direct election after the military period.

The difference now is that the 74-year-old doctor and farmer Caiado has had a long career in politics, as deputy, senator and governor in his second term. This accumulated experience and the collection of achievements and positions defended are the elements that he intends to explore in this current phase, which seeks to nationalize his name.

Early start could be useful for Caiado, experts say

With opinion polls showing the best level of approval among governors, at around 80%, Caiado feels comfortable making the search for the Presidency a hallmark of his second term at Palácio das Esmeraldas.

With a program to be created by the principles of economic liberalism, the efficiency of the public machine and the role of the State in guaranteeing the sovereignty of the territory, removing the dominance of crime, it already has the first support, such as that of the former state deputy from São Paulo , Janaína Paschoal, professor of criminal law at the University of São Paulo (USP). “Caiado is a good option for the right,” she defended on social media.

According to experts consulted by People’s Gazette, the governor of Goiás did not start his possible presidential candidacy in a rushed manner, contrary to the fear that hovers over other potential candidates, such as the governors of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo); from São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans); and from Paraná, Ratinho Júnior (PSD).

Despite being considered “first in line”, Tarcísio seems inclined to seek re-election, while Zema and Ratinho are almost guaranteed election to the Senate.

Caiado, recognizing that “opposition candidacy has to be built sooner”, may show an advantage later on. He made the reservation that he would not be a candidate if Tarcísio, with whom he has good relations, left. But there is something new: former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) is already an emerging figure in the polls for 2026, if her husband remains ineligible.

Political scientist Luiz Filipe Freitas assesses that Caiado has the conditions to become a competitive alternative on the right, highlighting his acceptance in crucial sectors, such as agribusiness and business in general.

Despite possible resistance due to his origin, from a state in the interior of the country and with only 3% of the national electorate, his profile is advantageous for gaining support in the center. “He is the most experienced and well-evaluated among those considered for the right, which qualifies him for the Presidency,” he said.

Caiado will first have to nationalize his name

Among the competitors in the right-wing arena, Zema and Tarcísio, despite their inexperience, have in their favor the command of the two largest electoral colleges, which imposes additional effort on Caiado in the search for national popularity.

The current moment, with two years left until the start of the pre-campaign, is seen as crucial for Caiado to gain visibility and consolidate himself as an option. However, the support of his candidacy by União Brasil, a party with considerable access to electoral and party funds and a national structure, plays a decisive role in this process.

As for the electorate most aligned with Bolsonaro, Freitas believes that the governors of São Paulo and Minas have already achieved greater identification. Caiado’s profile, representing the traditional and moderate right, presents specific challenges for more significant progress.

Although his emphatic approach to public security attracts Bolsonaro’s most loyal followers, issues such as health and the environment reveal noise. Caiado’s more considered stance is evidenced, for example, when he abdicated the debate on mandatory vaccination in schools, differentiating himself from other right-wing governors, such as Zema and Jorginho Mello (PL-SC).

For political scientist Leandro Gabiati, director of Dominium Consultoria, Caiado is “a good name for the right, which currently lacks competitive candidates, with the exception of Tarcísio, who everything indicates will run for re-election”.

“It is undeniable that the governor of Goiás has considerable political and management experience. But he is little known nationally, a situation that could be resolved by 2026. I understand that he did not jump the starting line by anticipating his intention to compete. You have to anticipate because he is testing his name and seeking the national projection he needs”, he summarized.