Brazil advances and the USA loses global participation in agriculture – 01/15/2024 – Vaivém

The shift in world food production over the last two decades has caused the United States to lose a lot of space in world trade, a place largely occupied by Brazil.

The accelerated expansion of consumption in Asia, mainly with the evolution of the Chinese middle class, favored Brazil in this new world economic order.

The Chinese began to compete, on a large scale, for the purchase of practically all foods in world trade, from proteins to grains. Whenever Brazil had a product available, the preference was for the national market.

In the grains sector, the big highlight was soybeans. In the 1970s, the United States held 90% of the world oilseed market. They were already exporting 20 million tons at the end of that decade. Last year, until November, foreign sales totaled 44 million.

Brazil, which began the 2000s with exports of 27 million, reached 102 million in 2023. As a result, Brazilians currently participate with 58% of the foreign oilseed market, and Americans, with 28%.

China, which two decades ago imported 21 million tons, bought 100 million last year. Of this volume, 75 million left Brazil.

The Americans also lost space in corn. Responsible for 84% of the cereal traded on the foreign market in the 1980s, they saw their share drop to 60% in 2000. The percentage is expected to fall to 27% in the 2023/24 harvest, according to data from Usda (United States Department of Agriculture) .

Brazil practically only entered the foreign market for this cereal in the 2000s, with the sale of 5.6 million tons in 2001. Last year, it placed 55.9 million tons on the foreign market, with a 29% share in world exports.

China, without a major presence in corn imports for a decade, entered this sector in 2010, purchasing 1.3 million tons. In the 2023/24 harvest, however, it will acquire 23 million.

An important change was the approval of Brazilian corn by the Chinese two years ago. After this decision, the Chinese, who were largely supplied by the Americans, firmly entered the Brazilian market. Of the volume exported by Brazil last year, 29% went to the Chinese, who, in 2021, were absent from the national market.

The world wheat market is also undergoing important changes. In the 1970s, Americans held 40% of the world market. This harvest, they should have just 9%.

Brazil does not have a significant share of exports in this market. In 2022, it sold 3.1 million tons, a volume that dropped to 2.4 million last year.

Americans have been losing share in the wheat market with the advance of Europeans, Australians, Russians, Ukrainians and Argentines. In this 2023/24 harvest, Russia will have 51 million tons of cereal available for export; the European Union, 36 million.

With greater demand for wheat, the Chinese took the world lead in imports last year, with the purchase of 13.3 million tons of wheat, and are once again leading this year with the expected acquisition of 12.5 million, according to the USDA .

In the protein sector, Brazil greatly increases foreign participation. In the 2000s, Americans were among the main competitors in the international beef market, with a 19% share. This year, they should keep 10%.

Brazil, which only began to have a greater presence in 2005, will hold a quarter of the world market this year. The Chinese, until 2012 outside the list of the world’s main buyers, have taken the lead in recent years and, in 2024, will buy 3.55 million tons of beef. A global volume of 12 million will be transacted.

The participation of the Chinese in the Brazilian market was decisive for Brazil to increase its global participation.

Just like in beef, Brazilians also have global leadership in the chicken sector. The United States, which in 2000 held 44% of this market, now has 24%. Brazil jumped from 17% to 36% in the same period.

In the pork sector, Brazil has been increasing both production and exports, but still has only 15% of the foreign market, well below the 38% of the Americans.

The United States loses space in the world volume of exports, but increased sales of value-added products to US$36 billion per year, 228% more than in 2000.

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