Brave Brazilian Census – 7/2/2023 – Marcia Castro

The Demographic Census is extremely important for any nation. By providing a snapshot of the population, Census data are essential for policy planning.

Over the decades, the Brazilian Census incorporated new questions that made it possible to identify vulnerable groups and inequalities. In 2022, for the first time, quilombolas will be identified as an ethnic group. Collecting this information is historical justice.

After delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and budgetary and logistical issues, the collection of Census data, initially expected to take three months, took about ten. The first results were released by the IBGE on the 28th. I highlight two issues here.

First, the country observed the lowest population growth since 1872 (date of the first Census), just 0.52% per year between 2010 and 2022. The slowdown in growth was already a trend due to the demographic transition (reduction in mortality and fertility) and must continue.

Furthermore, in 43% of the 5,570 municipalities the population decreased between 2010 and 2022. Although most of these municipalities have less than 100,000 inhabitants, the reduction was observed in capitals including Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Recife, Fortaleza, Salvador, Porto Alegre, Belém and Natal (all except Natal, with more than 1 million inhabitants).

The same was observed in the United States. The population growth rate in metropolitan areas with more than 1 million inhabitants between 2010 and 2021 was negative (-0.16), mainly due to internal migration to smaller cities, a movement that intensified during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In Brazil, after the zika virus epidemic, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the economic crisis, only detailed Census data will allow us to understand how changes in the pattern of births, deaths and migratory dynamics contributed to the population decline.

Second, on August 1, 2022, Brazil had 203,062,512 inhabitants, a number lower than the previous figure of 207,750,291, released on December 28, 2022 (before the completion of Census data collection) and lower than than the estimate of 213,317,639 inhabitants in 2021. This is not an error!

It is universally accepted that a Census is not perfect and that coverage and reporting errors do occur. For example, in Brazil, the non-response rate in 2022 was 4.23%, up from 1.6% in 2010. Statistical and demographic techniques minimize these problems and allow quantifying the quality of the Census.

Population estimates are also uncertain. The United Nations Population Division updates population estimates and projections every two years and releases prediction intervals with 80% and 95% certainty.

In Brazil, an additional aggravating factor is that in 2015 a population count was not carried out due to lack of funds. The count captures demographic changes since the last Census and allows you to update population estimates. Therefore, it was already known that the estimates calculated before the release of the 2022 Census had a large uncertainty.

There is still much work to be done before the complete Census data is released. The post-enumeration survey, a normal stage of a Demographic Census, is in progress and will allow obtaining quality indicators for the 2022 Census.

Until then, it is necessary to emphasize (and respect) the hard work, of extreme importance, and conducted with transparency by the IBGE. All preliminary Census results were evaluated and analyzed by a group of renowned demographers and statisticians in collaboration with IBGE technicians, an example of a partnership between academia and the public service to be followed by other areas.

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