Bolsonaro’s possible ineligibility divides PL, which does not rule out plan B

The Liberal Party (PL) is divided over the political future of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is honorary president of the party, due to the hypothesis of ineligibility. A portion of the acronym understands that it is unlikely that he will lose his political rights on the understanding that it would be a political decision and very unpopular with society. Other members of the PL, however, assess that, although “unfair”, a conviction to take away Bolsonaro’s political rights would be “possible”.

In one of the most advanced actions against Bolsonaro at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the Electoral Public Ministry defended that the former president be ineligible for eight years for “affecting the confidence of a portion of the population in the legitimacy” of the 2022 elections, due to of his criticisms of electronic voting machines. The action investigates whether there was abuse of political power and misuse of the media in last year’s presidential race. Bolsonaro is the target of another 15 lawsuits at the TSE that also have the potential to make him ineligible.

On the side of those who do not believe that the former president could become ineligible is federal deputy Bibo Nunes (PL-RS), deputy leader of the party in the Chamber. He understands that there is no legal basis to justify the loss of political rights. “It would be an unprecedented radicalism and a purely political decision, nothing technical, which would only create more instability in the country”, he says, quoting a statement by the former minister [do STF] Marco Aurélio Melo, that making Bolsonaro ineligible would be an extreme attitude.

“It’s wanting to sow even more the climate of disunity in Brazil, of latent revanchism. It would be very bad for the country. [presidente] Lula, who is sowing hatred and revenge?”, he adds.

The analysis made by another wing of the PL is that the possibility is real, in view of the different actions and investigations that are being processed against it in Justice. The perception among these members is that it is almost “inevitable” for the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to validate the ineligibility and for the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to ratify it, even though two leaders who think so understand that “it would not be fair”, but possible.

Bolsonaro’s ineligibility hypothesis is also debated at the PL summit. People close to the party’s national president, Valdemar Costa Neto, believe that the matter has cooled down, despite the Electoral Attorney General’s Office (PGE) defending the former president’s ineligibility for eight years to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). But leaders and leaders are divided on the political future of the former president, considering the municipal elections of 2024 and the general elections, in 2026.

PL does not rule out “plan B” in an ineligible Bolsonaro scenario

With Bolsonaro ineligible or not, the PL will not give up its political-electoral project until 2026 and understands that he will have an equally important role in the municipal elections. The party’s goal is to elect more than a thousand mayors, affiliate and elect conservative female leaders, in order to expand the legend’s capillarity across the country and pave a greater political muscle for the election of deputies, senators, governors and president.

As a result, the PL still informally discusses names that may be a “plan B” for Bolsonaro, with the consent of the former president himself.

The short-term goal is for Bolsonaro to be a strong electoral force for the PL to elect mayors. In the medium term, it is to position himself as a possible candidate for the presidential elections, despite some in the party believing that, even if he is fit, he may not run.

If Bolsonaro has his political rights suppressed by determination of the TSE, he wants to participate in the process of choosing the candidate who will lead the party project and have influence in choosing a successor. Even when he was in the United States, the former president authorized interlocutors and allies of his trust to conduct the process of analysis of the scenario and possible feasibility of a “plan B”.

Before advancing with an alternative name to Bolsonaro to lead the right, however, the PL is committed to appealing to the STF to annul any TSE decision or even a possible monocratic decision by a Supreme Court minister. As honorary president of the party and an important electoral supporter, the internal discourse is not to abandon the former president and exhaust possible legal resources and strategies.

Which names Bolsonaro and the PL can support in case of ineligibility

The PL and Bolsonaro have some options to launch into the dispute, in case he loses his political rights. The option for a family member of the former president is suggested in reserved conversations in the party, but only former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro is mentioned with some weight of greater participation and influence in the electoral scenario.

Michelle has already been mentioned as a possible candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, but she herself rejects the idea. The most likely scenario for her within the party is to have her as a possible candidate for deputy or senator. In the presidential race, having her as vice president on a ticket with a candidate supported by Bolsonaro is an idea that pleases some in the party.

Among those not affiliated with the PL, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is a name that appeals to the former president, part of his family and allies. His management conduct, so far, is not unanimous among Bolsonaro allies, but he is still seen as a potential name to become viable.

The hypothesis of Tarcísio having a good government in São Paulo qualifies him for the presidential race, but at the same time, some leaders in the PL understand that, as it is the largest electoral college, it may be more strategic for him to seek re-election to maintain a ally in the São Paulo government until 2030.

Among those who think so are those who advocate for the party and other allied parties from the conservative camp to support a candidacy for the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo).

Zema was invited to join the PL by Valdemar Costa Neto himself and also by the party’s federal Minas Gerais bench, which, in March, reinforced the invitation. A party leader in Minas Gerias claims that the doors are “100% open”, but clarifies that he has not committed to making any decision about the party’s future in 2026 for now.

According to the source, Zema thanked him, but assured that it is not the time to make a decision about it and that there is still a long way to go before the presidential elections. The analysis in the PL, however, is that Zema is a name with a real chance of joining the party and running for some elective office in 2026, as he had already been a member of the party before migrating to Novo.

Another name aired in informal conversations at the summit of the PL is Senator Rogério Marinho (RN), leader of the opposition. The political trajectory built from the Bolsonaro administration to the Senate presidential race this year is seen with favor in the party, and the fact that he is from the Northeast is an additional factor of encouragement to those who defend him in the presidential race.

For the 2022 elections, Marinho was even asked to run for Bolsonaro. However, those closest to the parliamentarian credit his quotation in the “betting pool” among potential candidates for the protagonism he has had as an opposition senator and the fact that he is from the PL. Party interlocutors also believe that he would be in a good position to compose with Zema, Tarcísio or even the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), who expressed interest in a union with the governors of Minas Gerais and São Paulo .