Bolsonaro’s PL parliamentarians rehearse adherence to Lula – 01/19/2023 – Politics

Members of parties that form the current base of support for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) claim that there are conversations with opposition parliamentarians, especially from Jair Bolsonaro’s PL, for joining the government in the first months of the current administration.

The movement, say Lula’s allies, already took place before the coup acts carried out by Bolsonarists on the 8th and is consistent with the tradition observed in the political world at the beginning of the administration.

In the Senate, there are no restrictions for congressmen to change parties, if they want to. In the Chamber, it is necessary to come to an agreement with the caption or wait for a party window to change acronym, something that will only happen in 2026, or else get approval from Justice.

According to government supporters, a group of parliamentarians may resort to this last option, arguing that there was a deviation from the party program of the PL, chaired by Valdemar Costa Neto, when questioning the results of the polls.

The PL came out of the 2022 elections as the largest bench in the Senate —with 14 senators— and in the Chamber —with 99 deputies. A considerable part of this success at the polls is due to the fact that the party bet on Bolsonaro’s image to leverage its strength in Congress.

The group, however, is divided between the “root Bolsonarists”, linked to the former president and with a very low probability of conversations with the government, and the “root center”, which has already allied itself with the PSDB from Fernando Henrique to Bolsonaro, through PT from Lula.

This is the target group of the current government, which seeks to isolate Bolsonarism in Congress.

In addition to Lula’s allies, the Sheet spoke privately with members of the PL. Some denied talks to join Lula, others confirmed that they exist.

A point highlighted by congressmen who claim to participate in the negotiations is that some parliamentarians from the PL claim that before formally joining they need to go through a kind of quarantine with their electorate, which is mostly anti-PT.

This period would be necessary for the modulation of the speech and evaluation of the terrain —a final decision involves not only the Congress-Executive relationship, but the local electoral realities.

In this context, however, there would be no major obstacles to voting with the government on economic agendas. On issues of the so-called customs agenda, parliamentarians would maintain a position faithful to that of their voter base. Especially because Lula and his allies have not indicated their intention to deal with these issues anytime soon.

The coup acts of January 8 led to the realignment of some political expectations in Congress. In the scenario outlined by some under reservation, there is even a risk for the 2024 municipal elections, in which the PL hopes to win more city halls still under Bolsonaro’s effect.

In addition to questioning the result of the polls, the PL is currently experiencing another internal problem with the attacks on the Planalto Palace and the buildings of the STF (Federal Supreme Court) and Congress.

Newly graduated Bolsonarist deputies André Fernandes (PL-CE) and Silvia Waiãpi (PL-AP), in addition to Clarissa Tércio (PP-PE), became the target of the PGR (Attorney General of the Republic) for inciting coup acts.

On November 22, Valdemar announced a lawsuit at the TSE asking for votes from electronic voting machines considered “compromised” to be disregarded. The party president based the complaint on equipment used in the second round, despite the fact that the same equipment was used in the first round.

The president of the TSE, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, determined that the questioning should also include the first round, but the PL initially disregarded the decision and maintained the contestation only on the second round.

Moraes then fined Bolsonaro’s coalition by almost R$ 23 million – later, the minister excluded PP and Republicans from the action and concentrated the penalty on the PL.

A departure of parliamentarians from the PL tends to benefit center-right acronyms currently under the lulist orbit, such as Gilberto Kassab’s PSD and Luciano Bivar’s União Brasil, as well as smaller acronyms, such as Solidariedade.

As left-wing parties make up only about 25% of the elected Chamber and Senate, Lula distributed nine ministries to PSD, MDB and União Brasil to try to have a broader base in Congress.

In União Brasil, there is still strong internal resistance to joining the Planalto Palace, on the grounds that the chosen ministers serve the interests of Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP) much more than the party as a whole.

Even if all these acronyms vote together with the government, Lula will still need to count on the support of members of the centrão, formed by PL, PP and Republicans, to have a really solid base, that is, to give a margin of slack to, for for example, approving amendments to the Constitution (which needs the support of at least 60% of deputies and senators).

The new Congress takes office on February 1st, when the elections for the commands of the two Houses take place. Arthur Lira (PP-AL), in the Chamber, and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), in the Senate, are candidates for re-election and are favorites to stay two more years in their respective roles.