Bolsonaro’s ineligibility – 01/29/2023 – Marcus Melo

There are growing expectations regarding the eventual decree of Bolsonaro’s ineligibility by the Judiciary. Considering the enormous impact of the assault on Praça dos Três Poderes on public opinion and the vulnerabilities it caused in the Bolsonarist field, political actors and analysts see a window of opportunity to “nip the evil in the bud”. Or for a return to “normalcy”.

The positive, non-normative analysis of the issue suggests that there is an equally plausible alternative scenario.
The first scenario is that by being prevented from running for elections, Bolsonaro would no longer be a threat. We would thus return to the previous dispute pattern vertebrated by a competition between PT and the center or center-right. This scenario would be frankly unfavorable to the PT, which feeds on the sharpening of the polarization exacerbated by Bolsonarism. Lula made himself viable as an alternative to the status quo; his victory was the product not of a broad front but of a negative electoral majority against Bolsonaro.

The scenario would be radically different from that prevailing under Lula 1 and 2, which favored Lula and the PT, for two reasons. First, the party and the left in general have shrunk: they hold less than a quarter of the House and less than an eighth of the Senate. According to Leiras, Stefanoni and Malamud in “Por qué retrocede la izquierda?”, the phenomenon is broader: the left has lost control of the streets and the ability to mobilize; the right today holds the banner of change, the left of the status quo.

But here comes another crucial variable: the PT has not renewed itself, maintaining the same leadership for 43 years, an unprecedented phenomenon as Timothy Power pointed out, which is critical for the party. The decline in its trade unionist base is similar to that seen in European socialist parties which reflects the decline in industry’s share of GDP there; among us, it plummeted 60% between 1986 and 2021, going from 27% to 11%. But here the problem was aggravated by the abolition of union dues.

The second scenario is that an eventual ineligibility would create intense victimization in Bolsonarism, keeping it mobilized, which would make it possible to transfer Bolsonaro’s electoral capital to another candidate. The reaction to ineligibility would culminate in an alternative candidacy, as happened with Lula himself in 2018, which would end up benefiting Lulism. The “perpetual campaign” that is already announced as a style of governance in this first month of government would be installed, changing only the sign.

In this second scenario, the key will be the behavior of the economy. Problems here could dissipate the political gains for the new government, which resulted from the “assault on the Capitol” debacle, and fuel Bolsonarism.

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