Bolsonaro’s 7 intentions between the lines of his speech at Paulista

An in-depth analysis of the 22-minute speech by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, last Sunday (25), reveals additional aspects to the series of messages he gave about the current political scenario and the siege court he faces. His speech also exposed a clear intention to strengthen the right-wing movement in Brazil, including the search for international support, both to resist pressure and to mobilize supporters with a focus on the 2024 and 2026 elections.

Faced with the urgent need to recover spaces for the opposition, which have been the target of court decisions in recent years, Bolsonaro highlighted the damage to freedom and the danger of banning allies from the polls. In front of an audience estimated at 750 thousand people by the Military Police, he based his statements on the spiritual duel between good and evil, the increasing persecution of oppositionists and, above all, the disrespect for the Constitution by members of the higher courts.

The conduct of the event by pastor Silas Malafaia confronted the most recent and heavy accusation against Bolsonaro – that of a coup plot. Not by chance, the slogan chosen for the act, defending the Democratic Rule of Law, repeats the refrain of judicial inquiries, especially the one related to Operation Tempus Veritatis, from the Federal Police (PF). The former president denied this accusation of an attempted coup d’état, without mentioning names such as Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Although it was not part of his speech, Bolsonaro incorporated and catalyzed the reaction of evangelicals and other groups against the diplomatic crisis between Brazil and Israel, in support of the Jewish people, expressed symbolically in the display of Israeli flags.

Below, the seven intentions contained in Bolsonaro’s speech at Paulista.

1. Anoint the right-wing leaders who accompany you

Among the leaders who responded to Jair Bolsonaro’s call for the event in Paulista, he showed special gratitude for the main host of the day, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). But he also made positive mention of the other governors present – ​​Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais), Jorginho Mello (Santa Catarina) and Ronaldo Caiado (Goiás). With this, in addition to taking photos with those who reinforce their defense against political persecution, Bolsonaro ended up empowering those who also seek support from the electorate most loyal to the former president. “Tarcísio (de Freitas) took a tiny budget and did great works across the country,” he praised.

2. Bar the exclusion of competitive opponents from the ballot box

In a reference to the police actions that targeted deputies from the PL of Rio de Janeiro who are pre-candidates for mayor this year and the most recent one, which cut off communication channels between members of the leadership of the largest opposition party, Bolsonaro condemned the judicial barriers to the participation of competitive names on the ballot. In this sense, he made an appeal to the consciences of judges and called on supporters to “take care in voting”, especially councilors, and to do grassroots work, to maximize the opposition’s electoral result in 2024. “We cannot agree that a power remove anyone from the political stage. Unless it’s for an extremely fair reason. We cannot think about winning elections by removing opponents from the political scene,” he protested.

3. Promote the campaign for amnesty for those convicted of the 8th of January

The former president led the entire speech by pointing out the human drama of those condemned on January 8th, as a mark of injustice, portrayed by “orphans with living parents”. From this report, he revealed his intention to launch a national campaign for amnesty for those convicted, bypassing the walls of the Judiciary through the Legislature. There are projects being processed in this regard in the Chamber and the Senate.

Bolsonaro highlighted that he seeks “pacification” and that the country has in the past amnestied “those who committed barbarity in Brazil”. He supports punishing those who vandalized public property, but highlighted that the penalties applied to others “beyond the minimum level of reasonableness”. “When the Democratic Rule of Law is not respected, that minority produces orphans with living parents. What has been happening is regrettable. Abuse by some, which brings insecurity to all of us”, he underlined.

4. Seek to restart the game of political polarization on new bases

By highlighting that he intends to “turn the page on 2022” and focus on the work to make the opposition have a consecrating reaction at the polls in 2024 and 2026, Bolsonaro sought to expand the range of alliances and maintain the hope of the conservative electorate for a turnaround in the current scenario . In this sense, the speech of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, who appointed Bolsonaro no longer as ex-president, but someone personally close and a movement in favor of the flags of the family, the country, economic freedom and other conservative flags . “There are no winners or losers. We will all be winners if the peace of God reigns over the hearts of each one of us”, said Bolsonaro about the need for conciliation.

5. Reinforce right-wing flags without “falling into the STF’s fine mesh”

In the first sentences of his speech, Bolsonaro made a point of praising freedom as a “greater good”, but one that demands sacrifices and permanent attention from everyone to be preserved. To express a thought that clashes with the current federal government, he listed the conservatives’ differentiating points, such as resistance to gender ideology and the liberalization of drugs and the defense of private property.

But because he was being limited by the investigations against him by his allies, he sought to get around other issues, expressing himself implicitly on topics such as making gun ownership more flexible and seeking more electoral transparency. “That thing that happened in October 2022 is a turning page in our history, because we know what needs to be done for the future. So that everyone has no doubts about the transparency of what we should have, especially when our representative is elected”, said Bolsonaro in reference to the electronic voting system. The most direct offensive against “the abuses of some” he left to other speakers, especially Silas Malafaia.

6. Trying to expose “political persecution” through the Judiciary

Listing some of the many accusations against him, especially after leaving the presidency, Bolsonaro described the series of accusations in court as political persecution. “I left Brazil and this persecution did not end. It’s jewelry. It’s the issue of whale nuisance. It is money that would be sent outside Brazil. There are so many things that they end up working against themselves”, he said.

He took the opportunity of his speech at Paulista to deny his alleged participation in a coup d’état plan. “What is a scam? A coup is a tank in the street, it is a weapon, it is a conspiracy. It’s bringing political classes to your side, business classes. None of this has been done,” he said.

7. Contrast support on the streets for the elected Lula and the defeated Bolsonaro

As a provocation to President Lula and a subtle criticism of the 2022 electoral process, Bolsonaro once again compared the current government to the champion team without fans. “We showed (with the demonstration in Paulista) that we can even see a football team without fans become champions, but we cannot understand how there is a president without the people by his side,” he said.

He exploited the curiosity of having an elected official who is unable to attract supporters on the streets, as proof of popular support. The demonstration with hundreds of thousands of people on Avenida Paulista, called by the former president himself, aimed to show political strength and popular support when he and his allies are besieged by inquiries from the Federal Police and the STF.

Experts point out targets of the speech inside and outside the country

For political scientist Ismael Almeida, Bolsonaro’s speech at Paulista sought national coverage, but also revealed the purpose of attracting the attention of observers from abroad. In this sense, the former president skillfully took advantage of the presence of representatives from the financial area of ​​G20 governments in the capital of São Paulo for a preparatory meeting for the summit, to ensure that reports and images of the political act had international repercussions.

Although he understands that Bolsonaro’s speech does not interfere with the progress of the legal proceedings against him, in which an irreversible punitive tendency is observed, Almeida identifies a significant change in the political scenario as a result. “By adopting a moderate stance and focusing on future challenges, Bolsonaro managed to unite the opposition beyond his own figure,” he said.

The expert highlights that President Lula’s “crusade” against members of the opposition, without distinction, helped to bring together even right-wing oppositionists who had distanced themselves due to Bolsonaro. “As Governor Tarcísio de Freitas assessed, by becoming a movement, the former president promotes an idea, which is much more difficult to stop than a character”, he concluded.

Paulo Kramer, professor of political science and consultant, believes that Paulista’s speech gave new impetus to the opposition, which had been feeling cornered and intimidated by the STF’s escalation against participants in the alleged “anti-democratic acts of January 8th”. The political act also served to reaffirm Bolsonaro’s role as the main electoral leader in this year’s election, as well as a “major voter” in 2026.

The expert also noted that, by seeking to popularize the dismantling of the Judiciary and Executive narrative about the 8th of January, Bolsonaro’s speech at Paulista also sought to sow doubts in those who had not paid attention to the facts. “Finally, another not inconsiderable effect of the success of the mega-demonstration was to strengthen the most combative wing of the PL, the largest opposition party, in the face of a certain cooling of its pragmatic wing, fearful of persecution from the left and attracted by the benefits of the Executive”, he said.