Bad balance between the Powers feeds populism – 05/02/2023 – Marcus Melo

“The choice of the president of the Republic continues to constitute the greatest drama in the country, its only drama”, argued Hermes Lima in 1955. And he concluded: under presidentialism, “government crises are, by definition, Executive crises”. Yes, the presidential election is the drama we are going through right now.

Future prime minister in our parliamentary experience, head of the Civil House and judge of the STF, Lima was a fine analyst of Brazilian presidentialism. He then pointed to something structural: “When trying to choose the president, the country enters a state of alarm and confusion. Why? Because what is going to be chosen is a legal dictator, an irresponsible source of political power, the man in will incarnate, according to Rui, the power of powers, the great nominator, the great contractor, the power of the stock market, the power of business, the power of force”.

The Executive’s congressional base will be a crucial variable: “If the President is endowed with a strong personality and his party has a majority in Congress, the Executive, already powerful due to its unipersonal character, imposes its will in an overwhelming way. If the President is weak, Congress takes the brakes on its teeth. In any of these hypotheses, there is no collaboration, there is predominance”.

Lima was right about the drama surrounding presidents and the potential for abuse they carry; wrong when it comes to the necessary adversarial relationship between the Powers. There are potential exchange gains in the relationships between them. Much has changed since the 1950s. The 1988 Constitution increased the constitutional powers of the Executive, but strengthened the checks and balances of the other Powers over it. Non-constitutional —informal— powers also withered with gradual democratization, especially from 1988 onwards. By design and unanticipated effect, the Judiciary and Legislatures have increased their power over the last two decades.

But the Executive’s enormous power impacts the parties, presidentializes them. Lima was also right about this: “In the face of the Executive, there are no programmatic positions. There are agreements, there are adjustments, there are understandings”. The potential for co-option is brutal, as we are currently witnessing. Incentives change. Loosen the brake on the teeth.

The scenario of open confrontation between the Executive and the Legislative is rare, it only occurs when there is a perfect storm. It gives rise to a bad balance: stability in maintaining a status quo in which there is no crisis, nor progress. In it, civic cynicism insidiously spreads, a general malaise marked by the perception of a great rentier collusion in which everyone (misgoverns) by mutual veto. It is he who feeds the populism that flourishes in the accumulation of frustrations regarding the meager results of governments.

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