Analysis: Zema’s clumsy speech shows dispute on the right – 08/07/2023 – Power

The new disastrous statements by Romeu Zema put the governor of Minas Gerais at risk of isolation, but anticipate the dispute on the Brazilian right for the space left by Jair Bolsonaro (PL), ineligible until 2030.

Zema has shown himself to be politically inept, such as the suggestion that the South and Southeast need to come together to assert their natural weight, but the exhibition has a clear motivation: the 2026 presidential race.

The governor of Novo was easily re-elected in the country’s second largest electoral college last year, a by no means negligible achievement. Still young at 58, he showed local competence. But he is unknown nationally, according to the few surveys available for parties and in the perception of experienced political operators.

In this way, putting your head out earlier is a logical way to position yourself in the public debate, still dominated by the opposition between Bolsonarism and Lulism. Also according to the reasoning, he tries to say he is anti-PT and not a root Bolsonarist, despite having supported the former president in the second round of 2022.

At the national level, the Minas Gerais electorate was split, with the current president taking 50.2% of the votes in the second round and the former, 49.8%. Zema sailed in peace and took the local dispute in the first round, with 56.2% drained from both sides of the polarization.

The governor’s problem is what he says, even if he insists on saying he is misunderstood. Having already posted a quote to the Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, he got into trouble when he touched on the sensitive issue of Brazilian regional inequality.

In early June, at an event by the consortium of governments from the South and Southeast, he suggested that these regions drive Brazilian development, while others live on official handouts. This weekend, in an interview with the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, he returned to the load suggesting a union between the two regions that, together, add up to 56.5% of the population of Brazil.

The northeastern reaction in both cases was predictable. The region is a bastion of the Lula left, historically living with economic difficulties. The news, however, came from the silence on the other side.

Neither Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), nor Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) commented on the colleague’s speech. The distinction went to Eduardo Leite (PSDB-RS), who initially supported him and then went to social networks to put a warm towel.

In common, Zema and these characters are on the chessboard of the post-Bolsonaro right for 2026. The behavior in the episode is an appetizer that anticipates the silent dispute that already takes place so that the characters, none of them even close to having the electoral dimension of the former President, take a stand.

Tarcísio has the seriousness of the position in his favor, but he has been advised to leave any domestic flight for 2030. Young (48 years old) and without experience with a gigantic machine like the one from São Paulo, he has shown difficulties when exposed to crises, backing down from decisions as in the case of digital books in the state network.

On the other hand, he has made moves to consolidate credentials on the right, as in his unequivocal support for the criticized police action in Guarujá. This could bear fruit not only with Bolsonarists, but with the conservative electorate in São Paulo, which paired its vote in 2022 between him and the former president, both with 55% in the local second round.

It is, of course, risky. A compromising image of police action could make the tactic lose, forcing a new reverse gear, in addition to the now unfathomable impact in terms of national image.

Ratinho Jr. eat around the edges. In his second term, he consolidated a great dominance of Gilberto Kassab’s PSD, incidentally political compass as Secretary of Government of Tarcísio, in Paraná. Allies point out that he is young (42 years old) and that he wants Brazilian experience, which was read as an intention to run for the Senate in 2026.

Leite is in the same vein: second term, just 38 years old, a figure that combines progressive aspects with conservatism. He already had his moment of national prominence when disputing the PSDB primaries that came to nothing in 2021, and against him there is the fact that his party is a fragile shadow of what it once was.

His initial alignment with Zema’s speech suggested a scenario of union with the miner in 2026, as opposed to the silence observed in Curitiba and São Paulo. It is something to be seen: the center-right electorate will be orphaned, but actors from this political spectrum today assess that the chances of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) becoming the favorite are very great, barring the proverbial economic or political tragedy.

In this way, there is a muffled comment about who would be the piranha ox of the equation in this scenario, a reasoning that only occurs because it is still too early to know the disposition of the pieces in two years. There are a myriad of factors that could disrupt the life of the PT, starting with Lula’s advanced age, now 77 years old.

So, in the dark, Zema decided to move, albeit in a clumsy way. The game is just beginning.