An ineligible Bolsonaro – 02/14/2023 – Elio Gaspari

From the floor of the carriage, it is likely that Jair Bolsonaro will be made ineligible by the Superior Electoral Court. Reasons, he gave them in abundance. Above all, even if this is not to the captain’s liking, a judicial sentence cannot be discussed, it is carried out.

Removing Bolsonaro from the elections is one thing. Living with his ineligible presence is quite another. The national political scenario will have to adapt to this, and it will not be easy.

Bolsonaro has two blood heirs and at least two soul heirs.

The blood ones are two of your children. Flávio is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and has roots in local politics. If he runs for mayor of the city, he will put his father’s inheritance to a test of fire. Eduardo, deputy for São Paulo, has a dimmer future. PT Fernando Haddad lost the gubernatorial election, but prevailed in the capital.

The soul heirs are governors Tarcísio de Freitas, from São Paulo, and Romeu Zema, from Minas Gerais. The first is a captain’s creation. The second one had its own origin. Both will be more or less Bolsonarists to the extent that the captain manages to fulfill his dream of leading the national right. He brought her out of the closet, mobilized her and led her to defeat in 2022.

The democratic arch that elected Lula showed that the civilized right had abandoned Bolsonaro. Part of the troglodyte right went to the street on the 8th of January and it is known that it had deeper roots. It may have shrunk, but it hasn’t disappeared.

An ineligible Bolsonaro will wear the mantle of the persecuted outcast. Made ineligible by a court decision within a regime of democratic franchises, Bolsonaro would be in a position somewhat similar to the one in which Lula was placed in 2017. Lula was removed from the 2018 election by a decision of the Federal Supreme Court, influenced by legal consistency from the famous tweet by General Eduardo Villas Bôas. He gave what he gave in 2022.

The misdeeds of the PT consulate and the politically oriented excesses of lavajatismo helped to produce the Bolsonarist wave of 2018. Four years later, Jair Bolsonaro helped form the democratic arch that elected Lula. On the night that Lula left the São Bernardo Metalworkers’ Union and presented himself to the Federal Police, there were few who admitted to the scene of his ascent on the Planalto ramp, last January.

Lula knew how to build the democratic arch of his victory. Bolsonaro, for his part, did not build the political arc that brought him to power. He just gathered feelings and prejudices thrown to the wind. Once in power, he isolated himself in irrationalism and coup fantasies. Still, in raw numbers, he got more votes in 2022 than he did in 2018.

The so-called Bolsonarism is nothing. Its oxygen is anti-PTism, a political perception formed by several ingredients. In it, the most disruptive is the PT’s tendency towards a hegemonism that manages to coexist with the centrão, but has difficulty coexisting with a rational right. It was she who decided the parade in last year’s election.

Bolsonaro ended up in Florida because he scratched out. Lula is on the Plateau because he scratched his head.

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