A flood of resources does not guarantee Lula a loyal support base in Congress

After the recent defeats in votes, the government was faced with the fact that it did not have consistent support in Congress and had to react. He called party leaders to talk, made some gestures and accelerated the release of federal budget resources to congressmen. This reaction, however, may have been late and insufficient, in addition to not guaranteeing the expansion of the government base, especially in the Chamber, nor the success in future votes of interest to the Planalto.

For analysts interviewed by People’s Gazette, the main warning sign that led to the mobilization of the government, including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), was the consideration by the Chamber, last week, of the urgent request to vote on the project that overturned sanitation decrees . Votes against the matter were 136 out of 513 deputies. Before that, the government bitterly removed the so-called “PL das das das Fake News” from the agenda due to lack of support.

Siga Brasil, a Senate channel on the internet that publicizes the release of funds from parliamentary amendments, pointed to a reserve made by the government, on Tuesday (9), of R$ 712 million for deputies and senators, an amount well above R$ $486 million registered since January. The release was soon perceived as part of the government’s effort to reorganize its base and secure approval of the fiscal framework. On the following day (10th) another R$434 million were released, adding up to more than R$1.1 billion in two days – more than twice as much as in the previous 138 days.

According to Eduardo Galvão, coordinator of the MBA in Public Policy and Institutional Relations at Ibmec-DF, the two episodes in Congress represented tests for Lula’s base. “Analyses show that there was a 65% alignment with the government in 16 votes in the Chamber. But the overthrow of excerpts from the decrees relating to the Sanitation Framework proved the need for the president to pragmatically assess his real support and negotiate the distribution of budget resources”, he underlined.

Galvão adds that reality imposed more effective negotiation in the search for the necessary votes in other matters. “See the impressive amount released only on Tuesday: 58% of everything that has already been transferred in the year and the highest amount ever allocated in a single day. This is something proportional to the measures on the agenda for discussion and voting, such as the fiscal framework and tax reform. As the middle of the year approaches, Lula is negotiating his priorities in batches,” he said.

Distribution of funds is a pragmatic reaction to the lack of votes

Last week’s two defeats forced Lula to order his ministers to begin releasing money from their portfolios. In the case of the sanitation decrees, only the PT delivered the expected votes. The PSD, MDB and União Brasil, the other important grassroots parties, contributed only eight votes in favour. The release of funds this week is part of Planalto’s strategy to maintain the base, but the new posture still faces challenges.

The government has 109 deputies effectively from the base, with the federations of PT, PCdoB and PV and Rede-Psol, in addition to the PSB, of vice-president Geraldo Alckmin. The rest of the support is conditioned and located in the two large party blocks headed, each one, by PP and Republicans. They are home to other base parties, such as the MDB, PSD, PDT and União Brasil, who hold top-ranking positions. In addition, the Planalto seeks to negotiate specific agreements with PP and Republican parliamentarians.

To make this base reorganization plan viable, Lula requested the faster release of BRL 19 billion from deputies and senators, BRL 10 billion of which referring to the 2023 Budget, and the remaining BRL 9 billion related to agreements signed in the management of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) within the so-called “secret budget”. On Monday (8), the president met with ministers and leaders in Congress – José Guimarães (PT-CE), from the Chamber; Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), from the Senate; and Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP), from Congress – to demand agreements with parliamentarians until June 6th.

On Wednesday (10), Minister Alexandre Padilha (Institutional Relations) began a series of meetings with the base parties PSB and PSD. Party leaders pledged allegiance in the future. They expressed discomfort with non-compliance with agreements during the approval of the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) that opened fiscal space in the spending ceiling for the government to run programs and still pay for amendments.

The mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), had already complained about failures in the articulation commanded by Padilha and excessive centralization in the figure of the Minister of the Civil House, Rui Costa, who would be blocking decision-making. A Globo News, Costa admitted the absence of dialogue, said that the government did not act with the required speed in the payment of amendments and stated that “faults are being corrected”, and the relationship with the Legislative, improved. Also on Wednesday (10), he and Padilha went to the Senate to deal with sanitation decrees.

Support in future congressional votes will require additional efforts and resources from the Planalto

According to political scientist Ismael Almeida, the government’s reaction was late and will not have the desired positive effect on all votes. In the case of Marco do Saneamento, for example, he understands that the release of funds in no way changes the prospect of defeat. “Defeat should not serve as a parameter, as the government made a mistake by insisting on legislating by decree, perhaps knowing that it would not win in a vote on this issue. The release of funds may, however, have a practical effect on the approval of the fiscal framework, since there is a consensus on its importance. But that does not prevent changes to the text already announced by the rapporteur, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA) ”, he said.

For Almeida, the fiscal milestone will become a crucial test for the government and for Lira, who dictates the pace of the story. This is because the release of funds with the payment of outstanding debts does not guarantee loyalty in the future. “This is just the beginning of a process to form an allied base and adjust the political articulation, with Lula himself assuming a prominent role”, he summarizes.