2024 could be less hot if La Niña arrives quickly – 03/07/2024 – Environment

The temperature records of the last nine months are expected to continue for a few more weeks, but there is still a possibility that the trend will ease if the La Niña phenomenon accelerates its arrival, the director of the European climate change service Copernicus explained to the AFP news agency, Carlo Buontempo.

These unprecedented temperatures — which cannot be explained without the effect of climate change caused by human activities — place humanity facing a climate never before experienced in our civilization.

But this situation coincides with climatologists’ predictions, which “we could have taken more seriously”, highlighted Buontempo.

How can we explain all these successive temperature records?

There are many factors: El Niño, the peak of the solar cycle, other phenomena… and greenhouse gases. These continue to increase and it would be difficult to explain such high temperatures without the effect of these emissions from humanity on the atmosphere.

In fact, this El Niño episode was not as intense as the previous ones, but the maximum temperatures we experienced were noticeably higher. It followed a long series of La Niñas, which somewhat dampened the effect of emissions [sobre as temperaturas].

Why do temperatures remain at record levels even after El Niño reached its peak in December?

When we look at past episodes, the peak in global temperatures always occurred after El Niño. Pacific Ocean temperatures are decreasing and we expect a likely transition to La Niña this summer [do Hemisfério Norte, a partir de junho].

Some signs suggest a faster transition than expected. 2024 was on track to be very hot once again, including a record year, but in fact, this risk may decrease.

In February, the world was for four consecutive days above the 2°C limit of warming since the industrial era, the highest limit of the Paris Agreement…

When it comes to the Paris Agreement, we talk about 20-year averages. In November, it was the first time we exceeded the 2°C limit in a single day.

This time it is a long series of consecutive days. This is remarkable and at the same time not very surprising: the climate system is warming, which means that temperature extremes will be exceeded more frequently on a daily, monthly and annual scale.

Is the climate entering uncharted territory or is it consistent with projections?

Both statements are correct. Our data goes back to 1940, but if we look at it from the perspective of what we know about past weather systems, our civilization has never faced this weather: our cities, our culture, our transportation system, our energy, none of it has faced weather like this.

Of course, there have been surprises in recent months, things we didn’t know would happen so quickly or with such force. That said, the early-century projections for temperatures in the 2020s were indeed very accurate and we could have taken them more seriously.

However, the oceans far exceed all past temperatures…

Most of the additional energy that enters the climate system, due to the imbalance between the amount of energy coming from the sun and that reflected by the Earth, is stored in the oceans. To a large extent, the ocean has served as a reservoir for extra energy and carbon.

We know this imbalance is accelerating. Such a high temperature level is notable because it indicates that this additional energy has a direct and measurable impact. We are still within the range of what is possible compared to projections from a few decades ago, although perhaps at the upper limit, at least until 2023.